When not if: EU wants to buy bullets for Ukraine — doing it will be harder

A year ago, the idea of the EU negotiating a contract to buy bullets would have seemed absurd.

Now, not only does it suddenly seem possible — it feels urgent.

That was the sentiment Monday as foreign ministers gathered in Brussels. Officials and diplomats indicated it seems more a matter of when and how, not if, the EU will be empowered to hash out ammo contracts on behalf of EU countries.

If it means “finding a way to commonly procure ammunition and allow companies to make a long-term investment in [defense] capacity, then let’s do it,” Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský told reporters.

The idea has surged to the fore since Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas floated it at an EU leaders’ summit earlier this month — wary of widespread concerns that Ukraine is low on bullets. Top EU officials, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and chief diplomat Josep Borrell, then seemed to indicate support with comments over the weekend.

Yet enthusiasm alone won’t push through the proposal. The EU has to find consensus among every country on the subject — never an easy thing in Brussels. And the bloc currently lacks a formal mechanism to jointly negotiate weapons contracts.

After Monday’s meeting, Borrell stressed that speed was essential but conceded that defense ministers won’t receive a concrete proposal until early next month, ahead of the next EU leaders’ summit in late March. 

“It’s evident that we need to launch procedures to increase the capacity of European industry to produce more and quickly,” he said, urging countries to donate what they have in the meantime.

“The coming weeks will be crucial,” Borrell stressed. “Speed means life.”

The eagerness highlights the massive ideological shift underway at the EU — a peace project increasingly moving into the military realm. Already, Brussels is partially reimbursing countries for weapons donations to Kyiv, an EU first, and Borrell has also inserted himself into contentious subjects like potential fighter jet donations. 

Vladimir Putin, said an EU diplomat not authorized to speak on the record, has “managed to overturn EU foreign, defense and security policy in a way no one ever has.”

So what’s the plan? 

Here’s how an EU-led contract for bullets would work (at least in theory): Instead of having each country negotiate its own ammunition deal, the EU would hash out a single contract for all interested countries, driving down the per-bullet price and allowing companies to boost production to meet wartime needs.

The ammunition would first go to Ukraine. But later orders could also go to EU countries needing to refill their own stockpiles, diplomats said, noting that Borell’s upcoming proposal should help spell this out. 

It’s a concept that has been rattling around for months, emerging once Europe realized the war seemed destined to drag on for the long haul. 

In November, Borrell and the EU’s internal market commissioner, Thierry Breton, wrote a letter to defense ministers — first reported by POLITICO — suggesting a massive joint procurement plan for weapons. They compared it with the coronavirus pandemic, when EU countries allowed Brussels to negotiate a bloc-wide contract to buy vaccines.

Yet the EU chose not to move on the suggestion at the time. And even now, it will still take time. 

Foreign ministers advocating for the idea on Monday said there is little time to waste. 

Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu told reporters his country’s proposal would see the EU negotiate contracts for one million 155-millimeter shells at a cost of €‎4 billion. 

How the EU would do that, however, remains an open question. 

Last year, EU countries set aside €500 million from the bloc’s budget for joint defense purchases. But the European Parliament has yet to finalize the plan, and some diplomats said a final deal isn’t expected until at least May.

French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna on Monday suggested one possible option, the so-called European Peace Facility — a pot of money outside the normal EU budget once used for conflict-prevention missions that has been repurposed as a reimbursement fund for countries sending Ukraine weapons. So far, it’s handed countries more than €3.5 billion to help cover arms donation costs.

“We’re going to use, and this is a novelty, the mechanism of the European Peace Facility to allow direct purchase of European ammunition for Ukraine,” she told reporters. 

Yet diplomats say no final decision has been made. There are other issues to work through, as well, such as whether these joint purchases would only apply to European-made ammunition. Diplomats said they expect that to be the case, at least initially.

The entire topic will next be on the agenda when defense ministers gather on March 8 in Sweden, where officials will also deliberate whether to tap the European Peace Facility for the initiative. Some diplomats said the group could agree to establish a joint purchasing pilot project within the facility.

But if that plan fails, officials are prepared to look at less EU-wide options, said Reinsalu, the Estonian foreign minister. 

“We would surely prefer to see a pan-European solution,” he told POLITICO. “But if there is a case that somebody would be hesitant in that matter … then surely either opt-in or opt-out mechanism would be then practical to use.”

Gregorio Sorgi and Lili Bayer contributed reporting.