Tropical Storm Idalia path update: Idalia to become ‘major’ category 3 hurricane before hitting Cuba and Florida

Tropical storm Idalia is forecast to reach Gulf of Florida by Tuesday as a category 3 “major” hurricane with a mix of heavy rains, high winds and damaging storm surge.

Along a vast stretch of Florida’s west coast, up to 11 feet (3.4 meters) of ocean water could surge on shore, raising fears of destructive flooding.

Idalia is expected to intensify into a hurricane today and make landfall by Wednesday morning near the Big Bend of Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center, said.

The storm is currently about 125 miles off the western tip of Cuba, whipping up maximum sustained winds of 65 mph, the hurricane center said in a 5am update.

Florida emergency officials on Sunday urged residents to keep their vehicle gas tanks at least half-full in case they need to evacuate.

“This will ensure you can evacuate tens of miles inland to a safe location should the need arise,” the Florida Division of Emergency Management said on social media.

Florida has mobilised 1,100 National Guard members, and “they have at their disposal 2,400 high-water vehicles, as well as 12 aircraft that can be used for rescue and recovery efforts,” said Ron DeSantis, the Republican governor who is a candidate for the GOP presidential nomination.

“If you are in the path of this storm, you should expect power outages,” he added. “So please prepare for that, particularly if this storm ends up coming in the Tallahassee region, there’s a lot trees that are going to get knocked down, the power lines are going to get knocked down – that is just going to happen, so just be prepared for that and be able to do what you need to do.”

Thirty-three Florida counties are under a state of emergency, the state emergency management agency said.

Mexico’s National Meteorological Service on Sunday warned of intense torrential rains showering the Yucatan Peninsula, with winds as fast as 55 mph (89 kph).

It said the storm could cause anything from powerful waves to flooding in southern Mexico, mainly around coastal cities in the Yucatan and Quintana Roo states. It asked citizens to stay alert.

This map from the National Hurricane Center shows which areas could see high sea waves as tropical storm Idalia barrels towards Florida, where it is forecast to become a category 3 “major” hurricane.

In some areas marked in red, the NHC forecast shows storm surges could be over 7 feet high. While others, including the Tampa Bay area, could see a surge between 4-7 feet.

Tropical storm Idalia is now forecast to become a category 3 “major hurricane” before it reaches the Gulf of Florida, the National Hurricane Center has said in its latest advisory.

The storm was earlier expected to intensify to category 2 on Tuesday as it inches closer to land, but the fact it has lingered over warmer waters near the coast has made the storm stronger.

The risk “continues to increase for life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane force winds”, the NHC said in its 5am advisory.

A day after appearing in Iowa, governor Ron DeSantis was back in the state capital of Tallahassee on Sunday for a news conference on Tropical Storm Idalia. He urged Floridians to heed the advice of emergency managers.

Mr DeSantis said in a statement that he issued his executive order “out of an abundance of caution to ensure that the Florida Division of Emergency Management can begin staging resources and Floridians have plenty of time to prepare their families for a storm next week.”

“I encourage Floridians to have a plan in place and ensure that their hurricane supply kit is stocked,” he said.

Forecast models have the storm curving to the northeast toward Florida, coming ashore along the Gulf coast north of Tampa near the Big Bend area and then heading diagonally across the state to emerge again in the Atlantic Ocean near southeast Georgia.

Meteorologists and weather experts tracking tropical storm Idalia have raised alarms over how quickly the storm is intensifying as it is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane when it reaches the US coast.

Extreme weather expert Colin McCarthy called it “ominous signs for Florida” as Idalia spends “much more time over the hot waters of the Caribbean than initially anticipated.”

“@NHC_Atlantic is currently forecasting landfall as a Category 2 hurricane near Cedar Key, but hurricane models continue to suggest a major hurricane could be possible at landfall,” Mr McCarthy wrote.

Idalia is expected to bring storm surges up to seven feet high in the Tampa Bay area when it reaches the coast of Florida, experts warn, adding that such high waves can “inundate numerous low-lying areas in the region”.

“The forecast for #stormsurge continues to increase,” writes Craig Ceecee, a meteorologist.

“Notice that in the Tampa Bay area, 4 to 7 feet is now the forecast. That will inundate numerous low-lying areas in the region.”

“If you are asked to evacuate, do so. If you can’t due to money or vehicle, call 211 for help.”

Hurricane Franklin, another storm formed in the Atlantic apart from Idalia, is forecast to become the Atlantic’s first major hurricane of the season on Monday.

The storm is on track to pass close to Bermuda on Wednesday, the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.

At around 11pm Eastern time (0300 GMT), Franklin was about 530 miles (855 km) southwest of Bermuda with maximum sustained winds nearing 105 mph (165 kph), the Miami-based centre said in an advisory.

“Additional strengthening is forecast, and Franklin is forecast to become a major hurricane on Monday,” the advisory said.

A tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of above 110 mph (177 kph) or higher is considered a major hurricane.