Autumn 2023, the second warmest after 2022 by only one tenth | Climate and Environment | EUROtoday

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This Tuesday, the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) made a climatic evaluation of the autumn of 2023 – from September 1 to November 30 in meteorological phrases – and its conclusions don’t come as any shock: it was the second hottest autumn within the historic collection. , solely surpassed by that of 2022. It was extraordinarily heat, with a median temperature in mainland Spain of 16.3°, 1.9° above regular, an anomaly only one tenth decrease than that of autumn 2022. In the Balearic Islands, it was 1.5 ° extra and, within the Canary Islands, the place they did endure the worst autumn since there are information, 2 °. At one in three stations on Aemet’s core community, the common temperature at this station was “the highest of the respective series.” Faced with this horrible panorama during which excessive temperatures reign as a consequence “without a doubt” of worldwide warming, the rains did convey pleasure, changing into the fifth rainiest autumn of the twenty first century, the seventeenth since information started.

At a press convention to current these information, Aemet spokesperson, Rubén del Campo, recalled that all through the quarter quite a few heat episodes have been recorded, amongst which the one which occurred all through Spain between September 25 and October 18, with temperatures “well above usual for the time of year.” It was particularly intense within the Canary Islands, the place there was a warmth wave between October 2 and 17, which was “absolutely exceptional” on account of its length – the longest – and since there had by no means been one so intense so late.

What is very severe is that it isn’t an remoted season, however fairly a terrifying development: Spain has had two extraordinarily scorching autumns and 7 of the ten hardest ones belong to the twenty first century. To discover a chilly autumn, it’s important to return to 2010. “The summer time and autumn of 2022 and the spring of 2023 have been the warmest within the collection, to that are added the final summer time, which was the third warmest, and this fall, the second. Of the final seasons, excluding the winter that was rather less heat, all have been on the rostrum of excessive temperatures, two large years,” highlighted Del Campo.

However, perfectly following the pattern marked by climate change, “cold episodes were few and of low intensity” both last season and in the rest of the year. In fact, there was no cold wave and only an episode of “substantial” low temperatures was recorded in all of 2023: between the end of February and the beginning of March. Although the last days of December still need to be counted, including last week’s extreme episode, Aemet points out that 2023 will finally be in second place in the ranking of warm years after 2022, with whom it has competed hard day by day for first place. position. The average temperature will be around 15.3°, one tenth below that of last year, which is 1.3° above normal, compared to an anomaly of 1.6° last year.

Until the middle of this December, there have been 42 records of warm days, that is, 42 days that were the hottest compared to the same days since at least 1950, compared to no record of cold days. “What is expected in a climate not altered by human action and the emission of greenhouse gases would be five records of each type per year, so that is already eight and a half times more,” Del Campo recalled. Last year it was a warm 35.

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The cause of all this, for Aemet, is crystal clear. “Since the sixties of the 20th century, a clear increase in temperature in Spain of 1.4° has been observed, but the last two years have jumped off the scale. The four warmest years have been recorded since 2017. This increase in average temperature translates into a greater occurrence of heat waves and untimely warm episodes,” his spokesperson emphasized.

This has been the map of autumn precipitation.
This has been the map of autumn precipitation.AEMET

In terms of rainfall, the autumn was wet: an average of 243.6 liters per square meter, 21% above normal. The problem was the “great geographical inequality” due to the predominance of Atlantic storms and the absence of Mediterranean storms. Thus, there were three extremely humid months in a large part of Galicia, parts of Castilla y León, the Community of Madrid, Navarra, and the north of Castilla-La Mancha, but dry in the Levant, the eastern half of Aragón, Castilla -La Mancha and Andalusia, even extremely dry in areas of Catalonia and Malaga. In the Balearic Islands, extremely dry, and in the Canary Islands, between normal and dry.

But a rainy season does not solve the serious water deficit that Spain suffers. Although the autumn rains helped to alleviate, in part, the situation of long-term meteorological drought in which the country found itself in December of last year, especially in areas of the northwest and center of the Peninsula, the shortage still worsened. more in Catalonia. This community “is suffering the most intense drought since the beginning of the series in 1961,” Del Campo stressed. In the Guadiana, the Guadalquivir and southern Andalusia, it is “the longest since there are records, since it began there in March 2016.” With the forecasts until the end of the year in hand, which are not at all promising because hardly any water is expected due to the robust anti-cyclonic situation, Aemet estimates that 2023 will end up being “very dry, with rainfall around 15% below normal”, which would make it “the driest since 2017”.

And what is expected for the astronomical winter, which will begin on Friday, December 22 at 4:27 peninsular time? The seasonal prediction does not provide much in terms of rainfall, since there is “the identical chance of it being a dry quarter as it’s wetter than traditional in most of Spain.” There is an exception, the northwest quadrant of the peninsula, where the probability that they are above the average is 50%, compared to 20% below. “The conclusion is that it seems that the Atlantic storm regime may return,” says Del Campo, which “will not help resolve the drought” in the most affected basins.

What does seem clearer is that winter will, once again, be warmer than normal: the probability is 50% in most of the Peninsula, compared to 20% that it will be colder than usual. In Andalusia and the archipelagos, the probability of it being warm rises to 60% while that of being cold remains at a sad 10%.

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