“If François Bayrou has tried so hard to change the government line, it is because there is danger ahead” | EUROtoday

IThere are two methods of deciphering the bloodshed of François Bayrou which prompted, on Wednesday February 7, fairly a dysfunction in Macronie earlier than being diminished to the extent of a easy wavelet since 4 MoDem ministers lastly belong to the second authorities of Gabriel Attal.

The first interpretation is a part of the course of historical past: Bayrou made Bayrou. The centrist confirmed himself to be indocile and rebellious as in 2002 when, president of the UDF, he refused to affix the UMP, as in 2006 when he determined to vote on the movement of censure tabled by the Socialist Party towards Dominique de Villepin, as in 2012 when he helped François Hollande to be elected President of the Republic relatively than supporting Nicolas Sarkozy.

With his eye mounted on 2027, the one who, at 72 years previous, has given up nothing has taken yet one more step apart. He dissociated himself from the current selections of Emmanuel Macron, the president whose election he ensured in 2017, by judging them to not conform to his conception of the central area that he helped to forge by working thrice for the presidential election. To summarize the content material of his grievances, he felt that the road embodied by the too younger Gabriel Attal leaned too far to the proper and gave an excessive amount of emphasis to this “managerial technocracy” embodied on the Elysée by the irremovable secretary basic, Alexis Kohler, who has turn out to be his bête noire.

The second interpretation can not ignore the circumstances. If François Bayrou, on the finish of the Paris courtroom, who pronounced his acquittal on February 5, within the case of the alleged fictitious employment of the MoDem (though with an enchantment from the general public prosecutor), tried so laborious to vary the federal government line, it’s as a result of there’s hazard in the home.

The identical week, an IFOP survey printed in Current values highlighted the excessive degree of Marine Le Pen within the voting intention polls. If the primary spherical of the presidential election passed off at this time, the candidate would get hold of 36% of the votes, seven factors greater than in March 2023, the day after the unpopular pension reform.

Not adopted by his troops

All the criticisms made by François Bayrou towards a authorities “too Parisian”, “too technocratic”all his injunctions to attempt to “reconcile France which fights at the bottom and that which decides at the top” are in resonance with the sociological and geographical breaks confirmed by the survey: the face-to-face majority is dominant amongst extremely educated, Parisian, well-off, aged voters. Marine Le Pen is more and more gaining the benefit among the many lively, the favored and intermediate classes, the provinces and the agricultural world. The divide has turn out to be so caricatured that it was commonplace for a cry of alarm to be raised 4 months earlier than the European elections.

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