what if Macron known as a referendum? | EUROtoday

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VSThis is the noise operating by way of the corridors of Parliament: what if Emmanuel Macron had the thought of ​​consulting the French by referendum to revise the Constitution, with a purpose to derogate from the regulation of the soil on the island of Mayotte, within the grip of a large unlawful immigration from neighboring Comoros and social unrest? The outdated fingers of the National Assembly and the Senate have been finding out the difficulty from each angle because the shock announcement made on Sunday, February 11, by Gérald Darmanin. “It will no longer be possible to become French if you are not yourself the child of French parents,” promised the Minister of the Interior visiting the 101e French division. A call taken instantly with the Head of State shortly earlier than Darmanin took off for Mayotte the day earlier than.

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A devilish Jupiterian possibility, the referendum would have the immense benefit of creating it doable to bypass the hostility of the opposition in Parliament, say a number of political leaders. To undertake a revision of the Constitution by way of the normal parliamentary route, it will be essential to gather three-fifths of the votes of deputies and senators. A problem. “The referendum is part of what is on the table,” Sabrina Agresti-Roubache, Secretary of State for Citizenship and really near the Macron couple, indicated this Monday on BFMTV and RMC.

“It is not impossible that Macron wants to hold a referendum at the same time as the European elections”, on June 9, even an outdated sea canine within the Senate speculates, imagining the next state of affairs: a referendum with a number of questions the place the voters could be known as upon to determine on the suitable of soil in Mayotte, the inclusion of the suitable to voluntary termination of being pregnant within the Constitution, and why not the introduction of a dose of proportional to the legislative elections and the discount within the variety of parliamentarians.

First act

At the peak of the disaster through the pension reform, Minister Christophe Béchu made a word to this impact to the Head of State which, it’s mentioned, caught his consideration. The path pushed by the previous mayor of Angers, in court docket on the Élysée: query the French on societal themes, even on ecology, with a purpose to overtake the extremes, to validate a brand new street map by the nation and permit the president to depart a mark in History.

“Between land law in Mayotte and abortion, these are two subjects which would be approved by a large majority of French people! Macron can run a referendum campaign for free,” agrees a supply within the Senate, who nonetheless doubts that the president will take the chance of a referendum on the identical day because the European elections: the Constitutional Council could possibly be justified in questioning the loyal character of this session.

The first act of the European marketing campaign? Failing to have a headliner to steer the Renaissance checklist, the pinnacle of state is taking part in politics. It didn’t escape the opposition's leaders that Gérald Darmanin's announcement got here on the identical day of publication in The gallery, Sunday, a disastrous ballot for the presidential camp, credited with 18 to 19% of voting intentions, relying on whether or not the Renaissance checklist is carried by Julien Denormandie, Clément Beaune or MEP Valérie Hayer, i.e. round 10 factors lower than the checklist led by the boss of the RN, Jordan Bardella.

However, would Emmanuel Macron be assured of success if he went by way of a referendum, beneath article 89 of the Constitution? Nothing is much less certain. Because it will first need to undergo a vote within the Assembly and the Senate. Which ought to agree on an equivalent textual content, earlier than the French can go to the polls. Less advanced than the assembly of the 2 chambers of Congress in Versailles, this path stays perilous.

“In this case, we will ask for the abolition of land rights across the entire territory, not just in Mayotte! » warns Les Républicains, who have perfectly identified the potential trap. “Macron reopens Pandora's box on immigration with his constitutional revision, but we will go further than him on land law and we will put a euro back in the jukebox by demanding a real constitutional revision, as we have done made during the debates in Parliament on the law on immigration,” provides an in depth buddy of Éric Ciotti. “I find it hard to believe that the RN agrees to vote on a text relating only to Mayotte,” notes a pillar of the Senate.

The referendum, a harmful “tool”

On the referendum, the supreme weapon of presidents, Emmanuel Macron has at all times had a trembling hand. His entourage additionally clarified, this Monday, that this path was not essentially the popular one for land rights in Mayotte, with out additional particulars on the means envisaged to move this reform. “We must give more room to the referendum route in our democracy,” the president promised in April 2019 after the intense upheaval of the Yellow Vests. Whether on the conclusions of the residents' conference on the local weather or on pensions, the specter of a direct session of the French had additionally loomed. Without follow-up, such is the concern that voters reply extra to the issuer than to the query requested.

READ ALSO Operation Wuambushu in Mayotte: large-scale destruction of unlawful housingFor months, Macron has appeared tempted once more. He talked about it in August in an interview with Point : “The referendum is still one of the options that can be used and I intend to use it. » In November, he wrote to party leaders to propose that they debate an expansion of the scope of article 11 of the Constitution – which also allows the French to be consulted by referendum – to social issues, such as “the end of life” or “migratory issues”. Before giving up, as a result of lack of political consensus. End of the ball? During his press convention on January 16, he once more expressed his temptation to attract this devilish presidential weapon: “Yes, I will,” he mentioned. I believe it's a very good factor. » Elliptical.

Like the historian Patrick Weil, a number of teachers consider that such a revision would, nevertheless, create a rupture within the historical past of French regulation. “Making differentiated law – in a given part of the territory – in terms of nationality is quite exceptional in the Republic, a regime based on the equality of citizens and the unity of the territory,” he remembers in an interview given to South West. “There is also the risk that everyone will ask for the same exemption: the Kanaks, the Corsicans, etc. It’s an impossible quagmire,” warns an outdated hand within the Senate. The sequence will in any case remind Emmanuel Macron of Montesquieu's outdated adage: “One ought to solely contact the legal guidelines with a trembling hand. »