the Macron camp overcome by doubt | EUROtoday

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Edouard Philippe, Gabriel Attal, Valérie Hayer, Yaël Braun-Pivet and François Bayrou (from left to right) during the meeting to launch the majority's campaign for the European elections, in Lille, March 9, 2024.

Between two tabling of amendments, Laurent Marcangeli, chief of the Horizons deputies, got here to hunt a bit respite on the National Assembly refreshment bar, a hotbed of chatter. But this Thursday, March 14, the faces of the parliamentarians in his camp are tense. “If we don’t manage to exceed 20%, it’s going to be tough”throws him a selected Renaissance.

It's been three days for the reason that third wave of the Ipsos survey was revealed for The world, Cevipof, the Jean Jaurès Foundation and the Montaigne Institute, with a view to the European elections on June 9. The examine brought about a wave of panic within the presidential camp. The National Rally (RN) listing, led by Jordan Bardella, obtained 31% of voting intentions, far forward of the 18% of the Renaissance-Horizons-MoDem coalition, led by Valérie Hayer. Not solely is the hole widening, three months earlier than the election, however the Macronist voters “shrinks on its bourgeois and elderly center-right heart”analyzes Gilles Finchelstein, secretary normal of the Jean Jaurès Foundation.

Read the decryption | Article reserved for our subscribers European elections 2024: with 13 factors forward, the RN continues to widen the hole with the presidential camp

“This decline, affecting almost all categories of the population, many of us feel it on the groundcomments Paris MP Gilles Le Gendre (Renaissance). It is probably linked to the jamming of our political messages since 2022.” “I really feel it, the dynamic shouldn’t be goodnotes Laurent Marcangeli. I'm not panicking, however what's scary is that the European elections are the final nationwide election earlier than 2027. If we get in jail, just like the Socialist Party in 1993…”

The spleen of elected officials in the presidential camp was further worsened by reading a “secret” survey, commissioned in December 2023 by Les Républicains (LR), which parliamentarians transmit to each other in WhatsApp and Telegram loops. Revealed by The Obs on March 15, the study made the RN the big winner in the event of early legislative elections, eleven votes short of an absolute majority.

The risk of “a political thunderbolt”

The oppressive ambiance of conflict “at the gates of Europe”, within the phrases of Emmanuel Macron, between Ukraine and Russia, and the RN's hyperlinks with the Kremlin, relentlessly denounced by Macron, don’t break the momentum of the far-right get together. On the bottom, the dramatization of the geopolitical context doesn’t contribute to strengthening the presidential camp, sighs the deputy for the North Violette Spillebout (Renaissance), noting that the inhabitants is extra inclined to “withdrawal into oneself” than to fret concerning the battle in Ukraine.

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