Musk predicts Kiev's defeat and is grilled as “Kremlin Elon”. | EUROtoday
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Ukraine struggle
Elon Musk predicts Kiev's defeat and is grilled as “Kremlin Elon”.
Musk in a photomontage as a Putin fighter together with Z-Batch and “Model Z” Tesla. “Z” is the Russian propaganda model for the invasion of Ukraine.
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Elon Musk speaks out what he thinks about struggle. The billionaire fears that Putin's troops will ultimately attain the Dnipro and even Odessa. That didn't go over nicely.
There isn’t any particular person who has helped Ukraine greater than Elon Musk. Kiev's armed forces used its Starlink system with out paying; Musk bore the prices for a very long time – then the Pentagon stepped in. He will not be thanked by the pro-Ukraine faction. On the opposite, he was repeatedly attacked. If Ukrainian drones can’t use Starlink over Russian-occupied territory, this will probably be thought of treason. If Russians use illegally imported programs close to the entrance, much more so. Musk turned a non-person as a result of he was all the time skeptical about free Ukraine's probabilities of victory.
So now once more in a tweet. Musk responded to an argument about whether or not city warfare skilled John Spencer's predictions had been useful or whether or not he was principally mistaken. Musk doesn't straight tackle Spencer, however he does reveal his evaluation of the struggle scenario.
Elon Musk on the 2023 summer season offensive
“It was a tragic waste of life for them Ukraine, to attack a larger army that had deep defenses, minefields and more powerful artillery, while Ukraine lacked tanks or air superiority! Any idiot could have predicted that.”
A harsh selection of phrases, as a result of there is no such thing as a scarcity of consultants who’ve made “idiots” of themselves. The scenario in 2023 was as Musk describes it, however within the West in spring 2023 most consultants predicted a superb victory – together with a breakthrough to the ocean and a victory celebration in Crimea.
Comrade Musk in entrance of the Kremlin
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The reverse has occurred, however recalling the wrong forecasts is taken into account inappropriate. “Layman” Musk, then again, already really useful a deep and elastic protection again then. Kiev desires to construct this technique now, slightly below far more tough circumstances than in May 2023.
Musk believes the autumn of Odessa is feasible
Because of the resistance among the many Ukrainian inhabitants, Musk sees “no chance” of Putin occupying the whole Ukraine. But: “The longer the war lasts, the more territory Russia will gain until it reaches the Dnieper, which is difficult to overcome.” And if the struggle doesn't finish, Odessa will fall too, in line with his gloomy prognosis. This struggle is all about how unhealthy the peace Kiev can obtain will probably be. “Whether Ukraine loses all access to the Black Sea or not is, in my opinion, the real question that remains.” Without entry to the ocean, all that may stay of free Ukraine can be an amputated, unviable rump state. “I recommend a negotiated solution before it comes to this.”
For this put up, Musk is showered with criticism and hate speech. In truth, the Russians' positive aspects in house over the previous couple of months have been manageable. Macer Gifford, a widely known Brit who fights on the Ukrainian facet, writes: “If you knew how deeply ignorant this tweet is, you would be too embarrassed to publish it…”
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What's true about Elon Musk's forecast?
About the content material: Musk's cautious opinion on the chances of the summer season offensive was a minority place in the summertime of 2023. But many protection consultants have now modified their thoughts. The fall of Kiev was already painted on the wall within the completely pro-Ukrainian “Telegraph”. Today, Musk tends to articulate the bulk opinion, albeit in his sturdy fashion.
In truth, the outlook that Musk suggests could be very bleak. What may be learn between the traces is that, in his opinion, “freezing” the battle will not be an possibility. Freezing would imply a ceasefire alongside the present line of the entrance, which might provide Kiev a respiration house and the West the prospect to make up for any shortfalls in arms manufacturing. As lengthy because the momentum is with the Russians, that is really slightly unlikely.
In Musk's view, Kiev's solely possibility is to cede areas within the east. And the additional the Russians advance, the bigger the slice that Putin will carve out of Ukraine will probably be.
Such forecasts aren’t sure. Musk's tweet assumes that Kiev's assist from the West will stay roughly as it’s now. So that every so often a handful of “miracle weapons” such because the F-16 are delivered, however the precise wants of the Ukrainian armed forces can’t be met. This will not be vital: if the Western economic system had been to undertake a struggle effort just like the USA did in World War II and the inhabitants accepted corresponding sacrifices, the tide would flip in Kiev's favor, but it surely doesn't appear to be that for the time being – particularly not within the USA. Regardless of Trump's bluster, the US has recognized China as its primary adversary, so its dedication to Ukraine should be such that it doesn’t endanger extra essential US pursuits equivalent to Israel or Taiwan.
https://www.stern.de/politik/ausland/musk-prophezeit-kiews-niederlage-und-wird-als–kreml-elon–gegrillt-34590780.html?utm_campaign=politik&utm_medium=rssfeed&utm_source=standard