AIReF estimates that solely 18.9 billion of European funds have already had an impression on GDP, 24% | EUROtoday

The Independent Fiscal Responsibility Authority (AIReF) has introduced this Wednesday a brand new instrument to investigate the impression of European funds related to the Recovery Plan within the economic system from which it deduces that, so far, solely 18.9 billion euros of those funds have had an impression on the expansion of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), that’s to say, and 24% of the overall allotted in subsidies.

That is the quantity executed by way of National contability, as estimated by the establishment, and it’s the one that the majority carefully resembles in its opinion the actual execution of the Plan, that’s, the cash that has reached the actual economic system. In whole, subsidies and tenders have been resolved for 32,052 million euroshowever solely 18,900 of them have had a macroeconomic and budgetary impression, in line with their estimate.

“Both figures are relevant. From the point of view of actual execution, the most accurate is the figure in terms of National Accounting because it includes the investment as it is being executed, while the budgetary figure is while the disbursements are being made. National Accounting does value the investment in progress, it records a real activity. “It's true,” he explained. Cristina Herreroits president, pointing out that the resolution figure is also interesting because from the moment a tender is signed, a movement can already occur in the economy (for example, companies begin to subcontract or buy materials).

The impact of these funds on the GDP has occurred mainly through the investmentdespite the fact that the latter is still below pre-pandemic levels, although there is also a part that appears as public spending within the large magnitudes that explain economic growth. The impact on GDP is then calculated by applying multipliers.

These data are more or less aligned with those of the Governmentwhich this same Wednesday has updated the total execution figure up to 35,190 million euros. AIReF assumes, for now, that give time to execute everything the remaining money (equivalent to 60% of the grant allocation) between now and 2026, but warns that as that deadline approaches it is more difficult to continue maintaining that optimism.

“In our state of affairs we assume so till the other is confirmed. In the funding we put every part nevertheless it has been shifting, we evaluation the present 12 months downwards and we put it within the following ones. The fewer years now we have behind us, it turns into harder increase that assumption and Maybe sooner or later now we have to cease doing it, however for now every part is included,” says Herrero.