Sadiq Khan in main hassle as ‘Susan Hall may actually win’ | Politics | News | EUROtoday

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The newest voter turnout figures counsel Sadiq Khan “could lose the race” to proceed as Mayor of London. While some numbers have but to be launched, the image appears worse for Mr Khan than for his Tory rival Susan Hall – who was an enormous outsider.

In the Barnet and Camden constituency turnout has fallen by 3.41 proportion factors, in accordance with an Express evaluation evaluating 2024 figures with these of the final London mayoral election in 2021.

The City and East constituency, which is made up of the boroughs Barking and Dagenham, City of London, Newham and Tower Hamlets, has seen a -3.83 proportion drop. These are areas which historically vote Labour and have helped Sadiq Khan win earlier elections.

Greenwich and Lewisham is down -1.67 proportion factors; Lambeth and Southwark -1.87 proportion factors and the North East constituency of Hackney, Islington and Waltham Forest has dropped -2.43 proportion factors.

All the above-mentioned constituencies voted majority Labour on the final mayoral election.

This compares to outer London constituencies, the place turnout is up 4.38 proportion factors in Bexley and Bromley and up 4.02 proportion factors in Ealing and Hillingdon. Both constituencies had been majority Conservative within the 2021 mayoral election.

Commentators have taken to social media to precise their concern on the figures, which come forward of the vote counting as a result of begin at 10am on Saturday (May 4).

Columnist Ian Dunt wrote on X: “The London turnout data is making me rather nervous.” Stephen Bush, Associate Editor on the Financial Times, posted on the identical platform: “Turnout figures from the London mayoralty: I think Susan Hall really could do it, you know.”

While turnout dropped in some Labour held constituencies, it rose 0.62 proportion factors in Enfield and Haringey. In South West, made up of Hounslow, Kingston Upon Thames, Richmond Upon Thames, turnout was down -1.74 proportion factors. That constituency returned a Conservative majority in 2021, as did West Central (Hammersmith and Fulham, Kensington and Chelsea, Westminster), which our evaluation exhibits has dropped -4.02 proportion factors this time round.

Author and journalist Paul Mason wrote on X: “London turnout confirms Labour concerns: poorest and most diverse area – the wider East End – an abysmal 31 percent, while outer London in general much higher… as I was saying last night: apathy, anomie and atomisation are the big challenge.”

Whisperings of a victory from Ms Hall swirled on Friday (May 3), with some supporters tipping the Tory candidate to win on the again of low turnout. She fought a marketing campaign on crime and a pledge to scrap the extension of London’s ULEZ scheme.

Mr Khan appeared to acknowledge the danger low turnout may lose him the race in a collection of X posts on election day through which he urged supporters to get out and vote. He emphasised his file on air pollution, house-building and supply of free faculty meals.

He has sought to distance himself from Labour’s line on the Israel-Hamas conflict, calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. Tory peer Robert Hayward predicted Mr Khan will keep away from a backlash because of this.

Outer London boroughs, which are inclined to favour the Conservatives in comparison with these in inside London that normally again Labour, seem to have seen a rise in turnout, however certainly not all.

The turnout figures launched by London Elects to date:

Barnet and Camden: 39.59 % (voters 413,809)

Bexley and Bromley: 48.38 % (voters 421,800)

Brent and Harrow: 37.09 % (428,775)

City and East: 31.17 % (628,856)

Croydon and Sutton: 42.27 % (440,715)

Ealing and Hillingdon: 42.98 % (453,892)

Enfield and Haringey: 41.38 % (399,677)

Greenwich and Lewisham: 40.33 % (399,703)

Havering and Redbridge: 42.94 %

Lambeth and Southwark: 39.13 % (448,552)

Merton and Wandsworth: 45.99 % (384,678)

North East: 39.57 % (524,885)

South West: 45.26 % (455,381)

West Central: 34.98 % (359,208)