Europeans: in the direction of an anti-Macron referendum? | EUROtoday

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HASno dynamics to report. This is what we be taught from the newest survey carried out by Cluster 17 for Point, confirming the tendencies noticed for a number of weeks. With 29.5% (=) of voting intentions, the National Rally maintains its place as ultra-favorite in these European elections.

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Supported by a broader electoral base (37% of Éric Zemmour voters within the 2024 presidential election say they need to vote for the RN, in addition to 17% of Valérie Pécresse voters and 10% of Emmanuel Macron voters), the listing led by Jordan Bardella additionally appeals to the aged (26% of these aged 75 and over present an intention to vote in favor of the far-right social gathering), an citizens not very inclined to abstain.

Bellamy regains coloration

“Voting intentions are very stable. There have been no major events to disrupt relatively fixed dynamics. For the moment, the RN is on track to make a big score,” reveals Jean-Yves Dormagen, founding president of Cluster 17.

The Renaissance List led by Valérie Hayer maintains a distant second place (15.5% voting intentions, = ), nonetheless carefully adopted by the PS-Place publique listing and its 13% voting intentions. An increase of Raphaël Glucksmann which is to the detriment of the listing of Ecologists (6% voting intentions) with one in two voters of Yannick Jadot in 2022 declaring that they need to vote for the PS.

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While Les Républicains appeared up towards the wall for a number of weeks, François-Xavier Bellamy's listing regained some coloration with 6.5% (+0.5), surpassing Reconquête!, nonetheless caught at 6%. For its half, La France insoumise reveals a slight enhance with now 8.5% of voting intentions (+ 0.5). An enhance to be examined with warning, in line with Jean-Yves Dormagen, for whom “the LFI electorate, made up mainly of young people and the working classes, remains very abstentionist”.

The French might not finally be utterly detached to the June election. A slight enhance in curiosity is noticed, with 47% of voters sure to vote, in comparison with solely 45% in line with our survey final week. So, what motivates voters to vote? The least we are able to say is that motivations stay very divided between the proper and the left.

“Ecology, a fairly secondary theme”

At the highest of the listing of issues is safety, a precedence topic for 26% of voters, notably inside the RN. “The current climate and the numerous attacks that have taken place can explain a feeling of brutalization of society which pushes part of the electorate, particularly elderly, of LR and Renaissance to turn to the RN”, explains the director of Cluster 17.

An indication of the rise of the far proper within the European elections, immigration is the second motivation for voters (15%). “The question of immigration is very present among the voters of the RN, reconquest and LR. More borders, less immigration, a firmer policy towards undocumented immigrants. These are areas that unite the right,” remembers Dormagen. The figures show it: 60% of Reconquest! voters, 28% of RN voters and 36% of LR voters place immigration as the primary problem on this election.

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In any case, the European query doesn’t appear to be on the coronary heart of the French's issues. The foremost motivation of solely 9% of voters, the development of Europe primarily mobilizes the listing of Valérie Hayer and that of Raphaël Glucksmann, with 31% of Renaissance voters and 25% of the PS for whom the European problem is a precedence.

Electorates who’re additionally hooked up to the struggle in Ukraine. The left, nonetheless, appears to be step by step transferring away from the ecological query, aside from the listing of Ecologists. According to Dormagen, “ecology is a fairly secondary theme today, even on the left. The ecological moment that was the 2019 election is over. »

READ ALSO What Édouard Philippe is cookingThe director of the polling institute also underlines the minimal place occupied by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in this election. “The situation in the Middle East is less important than the war in Ukraine for voters, even though it receives much more media coverage. We are witnessing here a strategic shift on the part of LFI which makes it its main campaign theme, while the majority of voters, including those of LFI, do not see it as the priority issue. » Indeed, 12% of LFI voters place the conflict in the Middle East at the top of their priorities. A significant figure but well below the question of social inequalities which brings together 28% of voters for the left party.

“The RN, main opposition party on the right”

For many French folks, the 2024 European election seems as a “sanction vote” towards the “Macronist” listing: 48% of voters specific opposition to the presidential social gathering, whereas solely 8% need to help Emmanuel Macron. An electoral logic which by no means helps Valérie Hayer's affairs, nonetheless lagging behind, 14 factors behind Jordan Bardella.

“We are witnessing the usual logic of sanction voting, comparable to the midterms [les élections de mi-mandat, NDLR] American style. This is an opportunity for voters to show their disagreement with the government. This partly explains the rise of the RN, which appears to be the main opposition party on the right,” explains Jean-Yves Dormagen.

If this opposition is expressed primarily on the aspect of the intense proper, with 80% of RN voters and 70% of Reconquest voters! who oppose the motion of Emmanuel Macron and his authorities, in addition to on the left, with 69% of LFI voters, it is usually evident among the many “Macronist” citizens. Indeed, 21% of Macron voters in 2022 selected to make use of the European election as a sanction towards the president. The assertion of dissatisfaction with Emmanuel Macron, whose pension reform and immigration regulation have dissatisfied a big a part of the president's help.