Loan to Kiev with Russian belongings within the drawer | EUROtoday

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Once the mandatory preconditions have been met, the banks wherein the Russian funds are presently deposited might concern loans equal to the worth of the Russian belongings held by the financial institution in favor of a Fund for the assist of Ukraine. Russian sovereign reserves would formally stay intact, and blocked, whereas Ukraine would obtain the cash instantly at favorable curiosity and, say, over two years.

If Russia doesn’t finish the conflict in these two years, or if it stops the conflict however doesn’t pay compensation, the mortgage may very well be prolonged indefinitely. But within the occasion of a change of management, and if the Kremlin agreed to pay reparations, the primary $300 billion can be transferred to the Fund for Support of Ukraine which might repay loans to banks.

In abstract, I might advise Western governments and monetary authorities to create a scheme that doesn’t contain a direct confiscation of Russian sovereign belongings, which might infuriate the Kremlin however would additionally deal a big blow to the Western monetary system, because the Chinese have already identified and Saudis. A much less dangerous mechanism would result in the identical consequence.

The “only” drawback that might come up is {that a} new Russian authorities refuses to pay the overall reparations requested by the Ukrainians, who presently estimate the injury inflicted at a trillion. Moscow might erase the 300 billion from its books and neglect the remainder. In my opinion this may be a constructive ending, for the reason that West can’t pressure Russia to pay extra. But no less than this “soft” seizure wouldn’t be thought-about a brand new casus belli, not like the present American proposal. An initiative that doesn't seem to be an answer to me in any respect: quite the opposite, one thing that creates a brand new, much more major problem.

Professor of International Economics, director of the Center for Post-Industrial Studies in Moscow and particular advisor of the Russia Project on the Middle East Media Research Institute in Washington