Two weak presidential candidates for the election roulette | EUROtoday

Listen to the audio model of the article

Where is America going? For the political scientist Roberto D'Alimonte, the American elections have change into a sport of roulette. «They had been so in 2016, they had been so in 2020 and they’re going to almost certainly nonetheless be so in 2024». Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania would be the three decisive states for a attainable Biden victory. The different three swing states, particularly Nevada, Arizona and Georgia, already appear misplaced this time. «Biden can nonetheless do it if he manages so as to add Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to the bottom of the states the place the Democratic occasion will definitely win. In this fashion it could attain 270 electors.” Majority needed to win the White House out of a total of 538 electors.

On November 5, the oldest candidates in American history will compete for the presidency: Trump at 78, Biden at 81 (he will turn 82 a few days later, on November 20). «It is an election – explains D'Alimonte – between two weak candidates, which is why it is roulette. Two extraordinarily unpopular candidates. Today all the data is negative for Biden because there are three factors that weigh heavily on Americans. First: the economy. The price of eggs and petrol. The value of money and interest rates. Second: immigration, where Biden is very weak. Third factor: age.”

But there are additionally different components that play in Biden's favor. «The first is Trump and his unpopularity. If there have been some other Republican candidate in his place he would haven’t any issue profitable. Biden additionally has extra money than Trump for the marketing campaign.” «The path is narrow – concludes D'Alimonte – but perhaps from the roulette wheel of the US elections the ball could fall into the blue box of the Democrats».

Trump, for his part, despite the sexual and institutional pranks «is not an accident of history but represents the response to a profound change in American society. In 2016, 62 million Americans chose it. In 2020, 74 million voted for him. In 2024, over 70 million citizens will choose it again. All those Americans who have distrust in the ruling class and institutions. Angry voters who are looking for something different and have found in Trump the anti-establishment candidate.”