Why did the blue wave not seem? | EUROtoday

Get real time updates directly on you device, subscribe now.

Herr Oppelland, die AfD legt bei den Kommunalwahlen in Thüringen zu, die befürchtete „blaue Welle“ ist aber ausgeblieben. Ist die Partei über die Skandale um ihre Europawahlkandidaten Maximilian Krah und Petr Bystron gestolpert?

Das kann man überhaupt nicht sagen, weil es keine Nachwahlbefragungen gibt. Aber es gibt ja den alten Spruch „bad news are good news“. Ich weiß nicht, ob diese Dinge einen großen Einfluss auf die Wählerschaft der AfD hatten. Viele ihrer Wähler wünschen sich beispielsweise einen Ausgleich mit Russland. Wenn sich einige Abgeordnete dafür vielleicht über Gebühr engagieren, muss sich das nicht negativ auswirken. Ich habe die Befürchtung der „blauen Welle“ ohnehin für überschätzt gehalten. Auch in Landtagsumfragen ist die AfD bei etwa 30 Prozent, zuletzt auch mal ein kleines bisschen darunter. Damit gewinnt man keine keine absoluten Mehrheiten. Und darum geht es ja bei Landrats- und Oberbürgermeisterwahlen.

Torsten Oppelland ist Leiter des Arbeitsbereichs „Vergleichende Regierungslehre“ an der Universität Jena.
Torsten Oppelland is head of the “Comparative Government” division on the University of Jena.Anne Günther/University of Jena
Nine of the 13 AfD candidates have made it to the runoff election, which can happen in two weeks. In earlier native elections, AfD candidates have been overtaken in runoff elections even once they had a big lead. Can we anticipate the identical this time?

Of course, as a result of as I mentioned: the AfD should win absolute majorities. And if the voters of the shedding candidates rally behind the one that can stop the AfD, then it won’t win an absolute majority.

Can the CDU subsequently contemplate itself the winner of the election?

From the attitude of the state CDU, the result’s actually not dangerous. The goal of Mario Voigt, the CDU's high candidate for the state elections, within the duel with the Thuringian AfD chief Björn Höcke was, amongst different issues, to interpret the subsequent state election as a duel between the CDU and the AfD. And if the CDU is now the opponent of the AfD in a number of runoff elections, then this narrative naturally features credibility. Even if the CDU loses a couple of proportion factors nationwide, it may be happy in that respect.

Nevertheless, there’ll most likely quickly be extra AfD politicians in Thuringia's native parliaments. The CDU has dominated out cooperation with the AfD in Thuringia. Will it now be tougher for them to keep up the “firewall”?

The “firewall” is a tough factor. There are sufficient examples of events that aren’t proper of middle, however left of middle, which have voted with the AfD on particular person points on the native stage. But within the state election marketing campaign, this might grow to be an issue for the CDU: If there are joint votes with the AfD someplace, this shall be interpreted in opposition to the get together. But I don't suppose such accusations are solely truthful.

The Left Party, which has Bodo Ramelow because the Prime Minister of Thuringia, suffered losses within the election. Are these dangerous omens for the state elections arising within the autumn?

You might say that. But on the native stage, it wasn't that robust earlier than both. At the state stage, it might probably cite the prime minister's incumbency bonus, however this hasn't been mirrored so strongly within the polls thus far. We have typically noticed in state elections in recent times that there are numerous late-deciding voters. In the neighboring states and in Thuringia itself, there was typically a push for the incumbent's get together and in opposition to the AfD. What the CDU is aiming for is that this last-minute push doesn't profit the prime minister and his get together, however relatively them. That's why it's attempting to unfold the narrative talked about. Whether that can work or not is unattainable to foretell prematurely.

Can we study something from the outcomes with regard to the state elections in September?

The state of affairs is totally completely different. At the native stage, we have now a very completely different get together system with many native voters' associations. Most of them won’t run on the state stage. There are the Free Voters and some different small and tiny events, such because the Values ​​Union. But they’ll in the end solely play a marginal position within the end result. The essential query is what these voters who’ve now opted for native voters' associations will vote for within the state election. But that can’t be predicted.