in 2024, the deficit could possibly be 6 billion euros increased than forecast | EUROtoday

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The funds of our welfare state could possibly be much more degraded than anticipated in 2024. The deficit could be 6 billion euros increased than initially anticipated, if we take into accounts the fundamental obligatory social safety schemes and the Old Age Solidarity Fund, chargeable for protecting varied bills of our pension system (together with the minimal previous age). This is likely one of the classes from the report of the “Secu” accounts fee, which have to be offered on Thursday, May 30, and that The world was in a position to seek the advice of.

Promulgated on the finish of December 2023, the Social Security financing regulation (LFSS) for 2024 anticipated a damaging stability of 10.5 billion euros. It would in the end be more likely to attain – 16.6 billion. This deterioration is especially because of the evolution of “receipts from social security contributions on earned income” and financial assets, which is much less dynamic than what the legislator anticipated within the fall of 2023. At the time, the chief was banking on financial development of 1.4% for 2024. Since then, this forecast has been revised to the lower, to + 1%, which works towards the gathering of obligatory deductions.

This new slippage is highlighted on the very second when the Court of Auditors is shining the highlight on the trajectory ” unsustainable “ social funds. During a press convention on Wednesday, throughout which he offered the annual report “on the application of LFSS”Pierre Moscovici, the primary president of the excessive court docket, expressed his concern, in a very direct tone, within the face of a “uncontrolled deficit”.

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As in earlier years, two compartments of the welfare state entice consideration. Health Insurance, to start with: in 2023, it posted a damaging stability of -11 billion euros and will plunge slightly additional into the crimson this yr (to -11.5 billion euros, in line with the “Secu” accounts fee). The different sector in very poor well being is the previous age department: whereas the imbalance had lowered, in 2023, to – 1.5 billion euros, it could improve once more this yr, to rise once more to – 7 billion , by reasoning on all the fundamental schemes and the Old Age Solidarity Fund. And the figures are more likely to be worse in subsequent years.

Multiple proposals to scale back the deficit

These poor outcomes are, partly, attributable to the rising difficulties encountered by the pension fund of public hospital staff and territorial civil servants. The proportion of contributors in comparison with that of pensioners continues to say no (1.52 in 2022 in comparison with 2.28 in 2010, in line with the Court of Auditors). The phenomenon causes a formidable scissors impact: on one aspect, revenues are declining, whereas on the opposite, financing wants are growing. The deficit of this regime might, consequently, rise to three.6 billion euros in 2024 (in comparison with 2.5 billion in 2023) and soar to round 10 billion in 2030.

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