Inflation within the euro space rises to 2.6 p.c in May | EUROtoday

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Die Inflation im Euroraum lag im Mai bei 2,6 Prozent. Das hat das europäische Statistikamt Eurostat in Luxemburg am Freitag aufgrund einer ersten Schätzung mitgeteilt. Im März und April hatte die Inflationsrate 2,4 Prozent betragen.

Kartoffeln, Kekse, Orangensaft – viele Lebensmittel waren zuletzt wieder teurer geworden. Auch die Preise für Restaurantbesuche und Hotelübernachtungen haben in Deutschland wieder zugelegt. Die Preise für Öl und Benzin dagegen haben sich zuletzt schwächer entwickelt, als das nach dem Ausbruch des Krieges im Nahen Osten befürchtet worden war.

Je nach Euroland gibt es dabei erhebliche Unterschiede. Nicht nur in Deutschland ist die Inflationsrate im Mai wieder gestiegen. Auch in Frankreich und Spanien beispielsweise hat die Teuerung jetzt wieder zugelegt. In Deutschland ging es nach dem Harmonisierten Verbraucherpreis-Index (HVPI), der für Vergleiche mit anderen Ländern verwendet wird, hoch auf 2,8 Prozent, in Frankreich auf 2,7 Prozent und in Spanien sogar auf 3,8 Prozent.

The figures are being adopted notably intently as a result of the European Central Bank (ECB) will resolve on its future rate of interest coverage subsequent week and expressly intends to proceed in a “data-dependent” method. A primary rate of interest minimize by the ECB in June of 0.25 share factors is taken into account very possible. However, there may be nonetheless a number of uncertainty in regards to the central financial institution's additional plan of action after that.

“While an ECB rate cut in June seems to be a done deal, we see the way forward as uncertain and dependent on inflation data,” write Uwe Hohmann and Eugen Keller of Bankhaus Metzler.

Probably no rate of interest minimize in July

Commerzbank has carried out an evaluation of how issues may proceed on the ECB and evaluated the statements made by the ECB Council. The ECB will decrease its key rates of interest subsequent Thursday, the financial institution writes. After that, it expects quarterly rate of interest hikes of 0.25 share factors every. In spring 2025, the deposit charge, which additionally performs a sure function in financial savings rates of interest, can have reached a worth of three p.c.

The time is ripe for a primary rate of interest minimize subsequent Thursday, stated nearly all ECB Council members. It doesn’t matter that collective wage agreements within the euro space rose considerably extra sharply within the first quarter, by 4.7 p.c, after 4.3 p.c within the fourth quarter of 2023, writes Commerzbank. Rather, the ECB's experimental wage indicators, referred to as “Wage Tracker,” level to declining wage stress. The central bankers see their projections of declining inflation confirmed.

At the assembly on Thursday, the ECB is predicted to publish new forecasts for development and inflation: “The ECB experts are only likely to publish a slightly higher forecast for core inflation for 2024 because the data at the beginning of the year were slightly higher than expected,” writes Commerzbank. For the identical motive, they’re more likely to forecast barely extra development for 2024. The projections for 2025 and 2026 are more likely to stay unchanged.

Nagel: ECB doesn’t journey on “autopilot”

The central bankers are unlikely to offer any steering on the longer term rate of interest path within the coming week, says Commerzbank. Instead, the ECB is more likely to clarify that rate of interest selections “will continue to depend on the data and will be made from meeting to meeting.” Most just lately, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel stated in a speech that the ECB will not be touring on “autopilot.”

There is definitely a threat that the numerically superior doves within the ECB Council, i.e. the supporters of a free financial coverage, will seize the chance and push for a second rate of interest minimize in July, says Commerzbank. If inflation figures are low in June, this might not be dominated out. However, some Council members, akin to Estonian Madis Müller, have now explicitly spoken out in opposition to an extra fast rate of interest minimize in July. Other Council members – even from the dove camp, akin to Spaniard Pablo Hernández de Cos – spoke of continuing with warning after the June step. “We therefore do not expect an interest rate cut in July,” writes Commerzbank.

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Interest charge cuts doable in September, December and March

The feedback and interviews of the previous few weeks counsel that almost all of ECB Council members choose a “gradual” method, i.e. they don’t want an excessive amount of pace. “Consequently, interest rate decisions are likely to be made on a quarterly basis and at the meeting dates with new projections,” writes Commerzbank.

Some Council members, such because the Belgian Pierre Wunsch and the Frenchman François Villeroy de Galhau, have prompt that extra significance ought to be given to the projections of the ECB consultants. Inflation is more likely to proceed to development downward, but it surely may briefly improve once more within the coming months resulting from some particular results.

ECB chief economist Philip Lane additionally just lately said that the goal all through 2024 is to not pursue a free financial coverage, however solely to cut back the extent of restrictions. “In our view, this argues for further interest rate cuts in September, December and March 2025 by 25 basis points each, so that a deposit rate of 3 percent would be reached next spring,” writes Commerzbank: “After that, the key interest rate is unlikely to be cut any further.”

Investors within the monetary markets have raised their rate of interest expectations for the euro space considerably in current months, so far as will be seen on the futures markets. While the futures markets had priced in six rate of interest cuts for this yr in January and had seen the deposit charge at 2 p.c by mid-2025, they now anticipate fewer than three full rate of interest cuts this yr and see the deposit charge at round 2.75 p.c on the finish of 2025.