the RN and the PS, the primary beneficiaries of electoral volatility | EUROtoday

What can an electoral marketing campaign do? Not every thing, as a result of a part of the political stability of energy is constructed earlier than the marketing campaign. But loads, as a result of notable developments are rising through the marketing campaign, and the election of the European Parliament is not any exception to the rule. To be satisfied of this, it is sufficient to distance ourselves from monitoring the each day evolution of voting intentions. The impression of relative established order thus reveals, between the months of November 2023 and May 2024, clear traits – upward dynamics for the National Rally (RN, + 5 factors) and for the Socialist Party (PS)-Place public (+4); downward dynamics for Renaissance (− 4) and for ecologists (− 3.5); relative stability for all others.

To doc these traits, and particularly to research electoral mobility, the electoral panel is a singular device: by interviewing the identical folks all through the marketing campaign, it makes it potential to exactly hint the origin of the flows.

First classes are offered by a panoramic portray. In three months, between the survey waves in the beginning of March and the top of May, 77% of voters remained fixed. 47% of them stay politically distant, reiterating their abstentionist selection. Constant for 30% of them in political loyalty, at all times expressing their intention to vote for a similar record. During these three months, 23% of voters had been subsequently altering. Changes for 14% of them within the selection of going to the polls – shifting, in a single path or the opposite, from abstention to voting. 9% change their voting intention, shifting from one record to a different.

During the 2022 presidential marketing campaign, it was not 23%, however… 48% of voters who had been switching voters. We thus see two perfect kinds of electoral marketing campaign rising. On the one hand, the presidential marketing campaign: two-round poll with qualification for the second spherical, election deemed efficient at 56% for ” make his voice heard “, decisive concern, strategic vote, and subsequently sturdy mobility with adjustments of kind of 15 factors for sure candidates. On the opposite hand, the European marketing campaign: one-round proportional poll, election deemed efficient at solely 37% for ” make his voice heard “secondary concern, vote of the guts, and subsequently restricted mobility with adjustments of kind of 5 factors for sure lists in 2019 as, one week earlier than the election, in 2024.

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