Emmanuel Macron, Gabriel Attal and the temptation of reshuffle | EUROtoday

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Dearly April, Matignon resort. A daily on the palaces of the Republic, a political veteran, has a gathering with Gabriel Attal for a one-on-one dinner. He appreciates this energetic and gifted younger Prime Minister. He needs to assist her.

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Two months earlier than the election, he then warned the pinnacle of presidency: “You have to watch your back. You must prepare and anticipate your evening of June 9 [jour du scrutin européen, NDLR] so as not to suffer. The president, what's more, is not always happy with you… You will not escape the burden of defeat. »

READ ALSO Gabriel Attal, the savior of the Europeans? Beneath his jovial demeanor and his unfailing confidence, Gabriel Attal, seemingly imperturbable, in reality hides great concern. Appointed at the beginning of January, the thirty-year-old has not yet passed the six-month mark on rue de Varenne and sees the wall of debacle arriving in the polls with nervousness. We would be less. He already imagines opposition leaders coming one after the other on television to call for his resignation. “It’s going to shake up,” predicted an govt advisor. The basic choreography within the occasion of electoral disavowal.

Poison of doubt

The bold Attal does probably not really feel threatened. He has opened quite a lot of initiatives since his arrival and his reputation has made his mark in the course of the marketing campaign. His star is fading, however his reputation is holding up as finest he can. He was nonetheless within the Socialist Party in 2014, when their listing completed in third place within the European elections, with lower than 14% of the votes… Without consequence for the then Prime Minister, Manuel Valls.

The French would subsequently not perceive that Emmanuel Macron dismissed him so shortly… Still. The echoes from the Château relating to his motion will not be all the time flattering: Gabriel Attal would don’t have any concepts, he wouldn’t sufficiently shield the president, would solely consider his personal picture. “The wow effect after Attal's surprise choice at Matignon only lasted a few days. If there is an upheaval, Macron will have no qualms about clearing it,” believes a former determine in Parliament who has entry to the Élysée.

Enough to sow the poison of doubt within the thoughts of the Prime Minister. He is aware of his fragile place. It is by nature. Wasn't Élisabeth Borne fired simply out of the president's irritation along with her? He can be conscious that the crocodiles in his authorities – ​​Gérald Darmanin, Bruno Le Maire, Sébastien Lecornu – won’t hesitate, relying on their pursuits, to present him a tough time.

The little music that’s rising in its majority has undoubtedly reached him: “If our Renaissance list makes less than 20%, with a National Rally at more than 30% and Raphaël Glucksmann neck and neck, it will be catastrophic . This will mean that the Prime Minister's political line is invalidated,” say a number of parliamentarians, significantly from the left wing. “A Prime Minister appointed to beat the campaign who finishes ten points behind is average. This will require a change of team, probably post-Olympic Games,” we hear within the aisles of the Palais-Bourbon.

In the eyes of a part of the bulk, the markers chosen by Gabriel Attal, significantly on the regalian, would have turned towards him. “The more he talks about authority, the less it is respected in the country and the more the electorate we target (CSP +, elderly people) wants to vote for the RN. Since we defended the uniform, the reform of state medical aid, have we progressed? » jokes, deliberately, a figure from the Macronist group in the Assembly.

To escape the trap, this cold-blooded Prime Minister plans to quickly turn the page on the election. School, job… He plans to occupy the field in all directions from next week to forget the announced snub and bring together his entire majority on June 11 to try to keep everyone on board. “There will be forty-eight hours of turbulence. We will have to turn our backs,” minimizes an advisor to the chief. In Matignon, the speculation of a resignation of Gabriel Attal on the night of the election exists. In the occasion that the president reappoints him instantly, the operation would purpose to relegitimize him to his publish.

“Soldiers of Year II”

The strategy additionally has the benefit of staging a reshuffle, even within the occasion of reappointment of the identical Prime Minister. In January, many members of the federal government ready to be selected their destiny realized that they had been simply numbers for Emmanuel Macron. “When we were then appointed, we knew that there was the risk of European elections,” says a number one minister. This is why we make investments ourselves within the battle, to be irreproachable. We all had an curiosity in going to the entrance! The well-known troopers of Year II [surnom donné en janvier par le président aux ministres du gouvernement Attal, NDLR] are in actuality topic to what’s going to occur on the night of June 9. »

READ ALSO European tv debates: who clashes with whom? In the occasion of an upheaval, sure members of the federal government recognized as weak hyperlinks may discover themselves within the crosshairs. “We must fire Nicole Belloubet (Education) and all those who do not hold up,” urges a Renaissance hierarch, who additionally needs the departure of Bruno Le Maire, whose outings on public funds in the course of the marketing campaign had been little appreciated . “This government is of no use to Emmanuel Macron. They are not good, do not protect him. There is Darmanin and Le Maire, but they are worn out. The rest is a whole series of nobodies toxic people who are tormenting their office,” mentioned a senior civil servant, referring to the cascade of resignations within the group of spokesperson Prisca Thevenot.

Another attainable configuration: the federal government of nationwide unity. Within the chief, we additionally suspect Gabriel Attal of desirous to suggest to Emmanuel Macron to open the casting of ministers, however with out having to undergo a proper settlement. Hence the care he takes to obtain Les Républicains parliamentarians and executives one after the other at Matignon, even taking the time to have lunch not too long ago with Laurent Wauquiez himselfputative candidate of the precise in 2027.

When Gabriel Attal went to Berlin in the beginning of February, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz instructed him concerning the setbacks of his coalition. Enough to largely put the Macronist into perspective. “Compared to this, my government is a sinecure! » he reassured himself. Even after June 9?

The European elections come at a pivotal moment for Emmanuel Macron, on the eve of a high-risk budgetary semester and as he enters the final part of his second five-year term. Opinion surveys converge and show an erosion of his electorate, anticipating a poor performance from his camp at the polls. If he wants to escape the curse of second terms and continue to govern while reforming, the president will have to find the capacity to bounce back. Will he take an initiative? Before this deadline, “Le Point” opinions the political and institutional choices out there to the Head of State.

Episode 1. Emmanuel Macron and The Republicans: in direction of a wedding one way or the other?

Episode 2. Emmanuel Macron going through the specter of dissolution