Greens lose younger voters, AfD robust within the East | EUROtoday

Die Grünen waren nie Volkspartei, relativ mehrheitsfähig waren sie nur unter Jungwählern. Das zeigte die Europawahl 2019, als jeder dritte unter 25 für sie stimmte, bei der Bundestagswahl 2021 war es noch jeder vierte. Weil Parteien ihre Stärken gerne als gegeben ansehen, neigten auch die Grünen dazu, ihre Zukunft weiterzuspinnen: Die Jungen, überzeugt vom Klimaschutz, würden sie tragen und ihnen einmal gesellschaftliche Mehrheiten bescheren. So kam es nicht.

Bei der Europawahl am Sonntag haben die Grünen eine dramatische Niederlage erlitten. Die Jungen wenden sich in weiten Teilen (minus 23 Prozent) von der Partei ab, was zu ihrem Abschneiden von knapp zwölf Prozent führt. Und auch wenn der Grünen-Vorsitzende Omid Nouripour am Wahlabend sagte, Klimaschutz sei kein Thema allein der Grünen, es gehe alle Parteien an – so zeigen die Nachwahlbefragungen, dass die Grünen aus Sicht der Wähler in erster Linie Klimaschutzpartei sind und das Thema auch unter Jungen an Bedeutung eingebüßt hat. Hinzu kommt die Ernüchterung über die Arbeit der Bundesregierung. Insgesamt sinken die Kompetenzwerte der Grünen. Auch ihr Wählerpotential ist gesunken. Es können sich also weniger vorstellen, unter Umständen für die Partei zu stimmen.

Dass gerade die Grünen, die sich als nah am Zeitgeist begreifen, die Jugend verlieren, dürfte der Partei noch Kopfzerbrechen bereiten. Mit 17 Prozent stimmten stattdessen besonders viele Wähler unter 25 Jahren für die Union – knapp dahinter liegt die AfD mit 16 Prozent Zustimmung. Waren es vorher vor allem mittelalte Wähler, die der rechtsextremen Partei zum Erfolg verhalfen, ist sie nun einzig unter Rentnern schwächer als im Durchschnitt. Diese halten stärker Union und SPD die Treue.

Die Mehrheit aller Wähler begreift die Entscheidung für die AfD als Denkzettel. Fast 70 Prozent geben das in der Nachwahlbefragung der Forschungsgruppe Wahlen an – und gestehen den Anhängern der Partei zu, dass sie aus einer temporären Unzufriedenheit heraus handeln.

Among AfD voters, the image is the alternative: just one in 4 says their voting determination is a political lesson – 70 p.c assist the political calls for. The overwhelming majority of AfD voters don’t consider that the social gathering represents right-wing extremist positions. Even if the social gathering is right-wing extremist, they are saying they don’t care so long as the “right issues” are addressed, they advised Infratest Dimap.

The AfD has constructed up a strong voter base in recent times. The proportion of those that describe it as “their party” is rising considerably. While solely a small proportion of AfD supporters admit that the social gathering has shut ties to Russia and China, voters of different events take this as a right. This could have been one motive why the social gathering – opposite to what some surveys advised – obtained not more than slightly below 16 p.c nationwide.

In East Germany, the AfD is the strongest social gathering with round 29 p.c of the vote. The CDU follows with round 20 p.c, the BSW with virtually 14 p.c and the SPD a great distance behind. The AfD's assist is even increased in Thuringia with virtually 31 p.c and in Saxony with greater than 34 p.c.

The voter migration exhibits that the AfD has gained votes from virtually all events. To a roughly equal extent from the CDU/CSU and SPD, adopted by the FDP and the Left Party. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) additionally gained votes from virtually all events – most strongly from the SPD and the Left Party, but additionally to a lesser extent from the CDU/CSU and FDP. The BSW solely lured away a number of voters from the AfD. However, this doesn’t disprove the speculation that Wagenknecht can also be weakening the AfD. At least the BSW precipitated the AfD to buckle within the polls.

In maintaining with their marketing campaign slogan (“War or peace – decide now”), supporters of Wagenknecht’s social gathering contemplate peacekeeping to be a very powerful factor, adopted by limiting immigration; social coverage is much less essential. Wagenknecht, who provides the alliance its title, is the umbrella time period for a mix of considerations amongst her voters: that opinions are being excluded, that the affect of Islam and crime are rising, and that Germany is being broken by assist to Ukraine.

Three quarters say they voted for the social gathering due to Wagenknecht, although the social gathering's namesake doesn’t wish to enter the European Parliament. The BSW advantages notably in East Germany from dissatisfied supporters of the Left, particularly within the group of in any other case loyal pensioners.

In addition to those older voters that the Left misplaced, a few of its supporters turned to the AfD or stopped voting altogether. Overall, the Left halved its outcome and achieved 2.7 p.c. This wouldn’t get it into the Bundestag, however it will be sufficient to enter the European Parliament. The Free Voters and Volt additionally entered the parliament in Brussels with equally excessive outcomes.

The latter social gathering, which relied on a pro-European election marketing campaign in main cities and on social media, elevated its outcome by 1.8 p.c and will thus ship three representatives. In phrases of its program, Volt is near the Greens and fishes of their milieu; Damian Boeselager, Volt co-founder and up to now solely consultant, joined the Greens group within the European Parliament (EP). For a nonetheless younger micro-party that may in all probability have disappeared from public view if a threshold clause had been launched, Brussels is a sort of oxygen tent.

Overall, voters have understood that whoever will get sufficient votes for a mandate will enter the European Parliament – in contrast to in federal and state elections, the bloc of others has grown to 14.3 p.c. The Animal Protection Party and the “party” across the satirist Martin Sonneborn are additionally more likely to make it into the European Parliament once more.

For voters, Europe was much less of a spotlight than it was 5 years in the past; federal politics was the decisive issue. The SPD and the Greens anticipated this and instantly put up posters that includes Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Economics Minister Robert Habeck. For the SPD a minimum of, the marketing campaign, which revolved across the time period “peace,” is more likely to be seen as a take a look at balloon for the federal election subsequent 12 months.

Compared to the federal election, their competence scores have fallen with regard to social justice – the problem that made Scholz chancellor. “Peacekeeping” is extra essential to SPD voters. At the identical time, it is not going to be simple to distinguish from the BSW's course on this level.

The nice dissatisfaction with the site visitors mild coalition at federal degree was expressed in the truth that greater than half of voters wished to show them a lesson. Even a fifth of those that voted for the SPD stated that the federal authorities deserved a warning shot throughout the bows. Even if the non-public scenario of voters has not worsened massively, the impression is widespread that the general financial scenario and future prospects have worsened. The normal scenario provides three quarters of voters trigger for concern.

Olaf Scholz, whose approval scores have plummeted because the federal election, could solely be given hope by the truth that, regardless of the Union's good efficiency, just one in 5 individuals consider that social gathering chief Friedrich Merz could be an excellent chancellor.

Once once more, it was the older voters who gave the Union a decisive lead and saved the SPD from free fall. One in 5 individuals over 60 voted for the Social Democrats, which is a major results of virtually 14 p.c; for the CDU/CSU, the determine was 39 p.c on this age group.

The Union took greater than one million voters from the FDP, who contributed to the Liberals' power within the federal election. Another million FDP voters who went to the federal election stayed away from the election this time.