the dissolution of the National Assembly, a double-edged sword | EUROtoday

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To reply to the victory of the far proper within the European elections, Emmanuel Macron determined to dissolve the National Assembly. A choice which might flip towards the camp of the President of the Republic who “took his risk”, in keeping with analysts interviewed by France 24.

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“Earthquake”, “thunderclap”, a “crazy” or “extreme” guess… The French press competes with superlatives on Monday June 10, the day after the big victory of the far proper within the European elections and Emmanuel's response Macron to dissolve the National Assembly.

“Do we respond to a failed bet with another bet, like a casino player convinced to 'remake himself' after losing big?” asks Le Parisien.

Read additionallyDissolution of the National Assembly: “Heads, Macron wins, tails, the RN wins”

This is the sixth time within the historical past of the Ve Republic that the weapon of dissolution, offered for by article 12 of the Constitution, is drawn by the president. But this sword, which permits a political disaster to be resolved by a return to the polls, is double-edged.

“Emmanuel Macron ‘takes his risk’ and makes the French judges of an unprecedented political situation,” analyzes political scientist Jean Petaux. Roselyne Febvre, head of France 24's political service, sees it as a “courageous decision”, however one which might have “serious consequences”. “It doesn’t lack panache,” she says, referring to a “Gaullian posture.”

Paid dissolutions, besides in 1997

General Charles de Gaulle was the primary to make use of dissolution. In October 1962, he took this choice after the adoption of a movement of censure aimed toward stopping the institution of direct common suffrage for the presidential election. He will as soon as once more provoke early legislative elections in 1968, in response to the occasions of May. In each circumstances, its parliamentary majority is bolstered.

Read additionallyThe dissolution of the Assembly, pronounced six instances below the Fifth Republic

François Mitterrand additionally resorted to dissolution twice. Each time, he pronounces it within the wake of his presidential victory, which permits him to make the most of the momentum round him to acquire a majority.

The newest dissolution, in 1997, is the one one which didn’t work in favor of the present president. Jacques Chirac calls early legislative elections, hoping to consolidate his majority and overtaking the opposition.

“In 1997, it was different. There was no political crisis, there was no censorship from the Juppé government. It was a cold dissolution, for personal convenience, as some have said” , recollects Jean Petaux.

As a consequence, the president is sanctioned by the voters. At the tip of the marketing campaign, nonetheless, it was the “plural left” which gained and Lionel Jospin entered Matignon. A cohabitation between left and proper begins.

“Macron is playing with fire”

Comfort or sweep away? Jean Petaux, for his half, believes that Emmanuel Macron respects the spirit of article 12, “which provides for dissolution in the event of a political event or crisis”.

Read additionallyIn France, Emmanuel Macron chooses dissolution within the face of the historic results of the far proper

“It makes the French judges of a brand new and unprecedented political state of affairs, with a National Rally led by Jordan Bardella which obtained greater than double the votes of the presidential majority. It is a brand new and distinctive political state of affairs which requires a call distinctive”, analyzes the political scientist.

“The announcement took everyone by surprise. I don't find it courageous. Emmanuel Macron is playing with fire and is leading us straight into a wall,” storms Republican Christophe Gomart.

“Emmanuel Macron is using a high-risk strategy” with an unsure final result, warns political scientist Pascal Perrineau.

What are the potential situations ?

The political scientist sees three potential situations in these early legislative elections, “and only one favorable to Emmanuel Macron”. In this speculation, explains Jean Petaux, “the French are returning the RN to its glass ceiling and strengthening Emmanuel Macron's majority by giving him back the absolute majority”.

To do that, the Head of State is undoubtedly relying on a two-round single-member poll, much less favorable to an remoted RN… Provided that the Republican entrance nonetheless capabilities.

Read additionallyLegislative: the loss of life of the Republican entrance permits a historic breakthrough for the National Rally

“We could also find ourselves with a National Assembly dominated by a new relative majority, whatever the leading party. The crisis would not be resolved,” warns Jean Petaux.

“We will have a France which will be in a blocked situation, because we will no longer be able to dissolve for a year,” provides Pascal Perrineau.

“The last option is the National Rally which finds itself with an absolute majority,” analyzes Jean Petaux. “President Emmanuel Macron will then have to appoint a Prime Minister or a Prime Minister from the political party that won and it will be cohabitation.”

Does Emmanuel Macron see the arrival of the RN in authorities as a lesser evil? According to numerous media, he privately believed in current months that his arrival in energy would have the benefit of demonstrating the unpreparedness of the far proper to energy. In brief, use Matignon's curse towards Marine Le Pen's occasion.

“This theory has its limits. We don’t necessarily get burned at Matignon. Pompidou became president after having been Prime Minister,” recollects Pascal Perrineau. “And the RN would acquire what it lacks: a culture of government. They will have the means to prove themselves.”

Estimates and results for the 2024 European elections
Estimates and outcomes for the 2024 European elections © FMM Graphic Studio