“This double or nothing is a daring and dangerous bet” | EUROtoday

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“You are making a mistake, Jacques, a serious mistake. I should punch you in the face. » Thus spoke Pierre Mazeaud, a historic Gaullist deputy, collaring his friend Jacques Chirac, who had just announced his decision to dissolve the National Assembly on April 21, 1997. An experienced jurist, Mr. Mazeaud believed that it was a question of 'a “dissolution of convenience”, incompatible with the spirit of article 12 of the Constitution. In his eyes, it was justified for François Mitterrand after his election in 1981 and his re-election in 1988 as a result of he was then confronted with right-wing majorities, subsequently incapable of governing.

Also learn (1997) | Article reserved for our subscribers National Assembly: How Jacques Chirac let dissolution come to him

But this was not the case in 1997, as a result of the federal government of Alain Juppé may depend on a snug majority of 484 seats ensuing from the 1993 elections. By organizing new elections, Chirac wished to make this majority extra coherent and disciplined. . It was fairly the other that occurred, as a result of the “plural left”united underneath the banner of Lionel Jospin, received palms down the elections of June 1997, which led to the third cohabitation of the Ve Republic.

What conclusions might be drawn from this historic precedent to research the shock dissolution introduced by Emmanuel Macron on the night of his camp's crushing defeat within the European elections? A priori, we may estimate, like Pierre Mazeaud in 1997, that this can be a dissolution “of convenience”because the president nonetheless has, at current, a majority within the National Assembly, and France is just not going via a critical disaster justifying using article 12.

“Democratic breathing”

But this could be to neglect the big difficulties of governance, as they’ve arisen since 2022, in a scenario of relative majority which comes up towards the ambiguities of the Republicans on one aspect and the technique of paralyzing battle deployed on the opposite. by La France insoumise on the Palais-Bourbon. In this context of an ungovernable France, and furthermore to answer a social demand for “democratic breathing” which continues to rise in public opinion, notably because the “yellow vest” disaster, we are able to take into account {that a} dissolution can largely be justified. Better but, it corresponds to the notion of an enchantment to the folks which is consistent with the Gaullian interpretation of the establishments of the Ve Republic.

Read additionally | Article reserved for our subscribers Dissolution of the Assembly: Emmanuel Macron's high-risk wager to relaunch his five-year time period after the failure within the European elections

However, is that this an excellent political calculation on the a part of Emmanuel Macron, at a time when a majority of French folks have simply expressed a scathing disavowal of his insurance policies, and maybe even extra of his character? A survey carried out on the finish of 2023 by the Ipsos institute indicated that the National Rally [RN] may win between 243 and 305 seats within the legislative elections, subsequently at the very least a relative majority, and maybe even an absolute majority. In which case it will appear tough for Emmanuel Macron to not name Matignon Jordan Bardella, candidate designated by his occasion to imagine this perform. It can be the primary time {that a} chief of the French excessive proper would discover himself able to manipulate France, if we besides the ultras of the Restoration or the Vichy ministers… a few of whom got here from the left.

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