what we all know to this point in regards to the electoral projections within the 577 constituencies | EUROtoday

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French political life has entered a interval of unprecedented uncertainty for the reason that announcement of the dissolution by the Head of State, Emmanuel Macron, on Sunday June 9. The first results of the partisan recomposition earlier than the early legislative elections, scheduled for June 30 and July 7, and the menace posed by the far proper, make forecasts tougher than ever for the reason that begin of the Ve Republic. The unknowns are quite a few, main, generally contradictory, whether or not it considerations alliances, the profile of the candidates, their quantity, the extent of participation and the progress of a very improvised marketing campaign.

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The first of the difficulties, inherent to the voting methodology, is clear: even when the marketing campaign is nationwide, with the dedication on the entrance line of the leaders of every camp, together with the Head of State, there are 577 votes totally different ones that can happen. The easy switch of the results of the European elections of June 9 – a single spherical poll with 38 lists – to that of the legislative elections thus solely provides a really basic indication.

Not that the celebration headquarters anticipate radically totally different votes among the many voters who got here – notably for the National Rally (RN) –, however fairly as a result of the voters will in all probability not be precisely the identical, nor carried by the identical motivations. Emmanuel Macron is properly positioned to know this: if he had received the 2022 presidential election fairly clearly (58.5% of the votes in opposition to 41.5% for Marine Le Pen), he had not been capable of receive, within the course of , absolute majority within the National Assembly.

The depth of a presidential election

The second problem arises from the extent of participation, probably the most delicate factors to anticipate for polling institutes. The evaluation of electoral conduct over an extended interval reveals that the electoral inhabitants is split into three essential classes. In 2022, for instance, 16% of voters, or practically eight million individuals, had not participated in any of the 4 elections of the yr (two rounds for the presidential election, two rounds for the legislative elections). On the opposite aspect of the citizen spectrum, 36.4% of these registered had participated in all 4 rounds. Between the 2, 47% of these registered are “intermittent voters”, in line with the qualification of the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee), which due to this fact represent precedence targets for mobilization for the events and their candidates. Knowing that the electoral inhabitants has elevated by 500,000 individuals in comparison with 2022 because of the demographic change within the nation.

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https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2024/06/13/elections-legislatives-2024-beaucoup-d-inconnues-et-de-rares-certitudes_6239618_823448.html