the price of political get together packages, a battle of numbers and doubts | EUROtoday

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Is this an impact of inflation? Since the beginning of the quick marketing campaign opened on the night of June 9, the unit of measurement is not the billion euros, nor even the tens of billions, however the hundred billion. Majority and oppositions confer with the determine of figures with eleven zeros which make one dizzy, though they arrive from approximate calculations as a result of they’re made on the idea of guarantees, lots of that are contained in a single sentence. “A cost of at least 100 billion”declared Emmanuel Macron throughout his press convention on June 12 about this system of the National Rally (RN). “Hundreds of billions of euros in additional spending” for the left's program, warned the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire. “A thousand billion euros of additional debt” since 2017, the RN and the left reply in unison, blaming the federal government for its personal budgetary irresponsibility since 2017.

However, neither the outgoing majority nor the opposition can declare the seriousness and sincerity of the figures. The authorities, the primary to launch fanciful estimates of its opponents' guarantees, was not too long ago sanctioned by the Standard & Poor's ranking company. The left sees, for its half, in these colossal figures proof of its political voluntarism, whereas the far proper is already backing down, tacitly admitting that its formidable guarantees for pensions or buying energy won’t stand the take a look at. of actuality.

“No one is making an honest trajectory, any more than in 2022, but that poses no problem in the French public debate”is stunned by Xavier Jaravel, affiliate professor on the London School of Economics, who deplores the digital absence in France of non-partisan establishments authoritative on the difficulty throughout electoral durations.

“Golden budgetary rule”

At this stage, not one of the campaigning events has estimated the price of their very own program, leaving it to others to take action. Even the Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, who promised throughout his press convention on Thursday June 20, “budgetary golden rule”brushed the topic apart. “The measures we are proposing are fundedhe repeated. If there are any who are credible and who take on the efforts required to finance the program, it's us! We are the only ones! »

Read also | Gabriel Attal presents the presidential camp as a “dike” towards the RN and the New Popular Front

The Macron bonus, raised to 10,000 euros, prices nothing since it’s cash that will not have been paid, affirms the tenant of Matignon, ignoring the chance of a substitution impact with salaries, nevertheless described by economists. The abolition of notary charges for transactions of lower than 250,000 euros prices 2 billion euros, however replaces a tax lower promised at the beginning of the yr, due to this fact already taken under consideration. And the long run discount in contributions for workers on the minimal wage stage can be realized “at constant cost”, say these round Bruno Le Maire. As for the rebate on electrical energy payments, it outcomes from market developments, due to this fact with out budgetary impression. The Montaigne Institute, a liberal suppose tank, nevertheless, places the price of these measures at between 12 and 14 billion euros. And didn’t take a look at others, corresponding to mutual insurance coverage at 1 euro per day.

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