falling numbers, declining parity and disparate coalitions | EUROtoday

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Organized urgently, the legislative elections of June 30 and July 7 are distinguished by a decreased variety of candidates in comparison with 2022. They provide a panorama, nonetheless muddled, composed of a secure variety of candidates from the National Rally (RN) , the New Popular Front (NFP) in competitors with different left-wing candidates, and a weakened presidential coalition.

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Find beneath a quantitative evaluation of the candidates introduced for the 2024 legislative elections, in response to their political affiliation. Some information is more likely to change marginally within the coming days.

Much fewer candidates than in 2022

In whole, in response to our counts and after withdrawals which have occurred for the reason that publication of the lists by the Ministry of the Interior, 4,005 candidates run for legislative elections. This represents 2,285 fewer candidates than within the 2022 legislative elections. On common, every constituency has 7 candidates, with vital variations, since their quantity oscillates between 4 and 19 (within the 9e international constituency, bringing collectively sixteen nations in West Africa and the Maghreb). In 2022, the typical was 10.9 candidates, with a most of twenty-two.

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This drop is defined by the settlement between the principle left-wing events to current just one candidate throughout the NFP, the selection made by sure small events to not current candidates (such because the Animalist Party, which had extra 400 in 2022) and the “Republican arc” technique claimed by the presidential coalition in sure constituencies. Added to this, on the margin, is the selection made by sure outgoing deputies to not run once more: of the 577 deputies elected in 2022, a fifth, or 93 elected officers, are usually not working for workplace. Among the latter, 63 belong to the bulk coalition united beneath the banner Ensemble pour la République.

Parity in slight decline

In whole, 1,647 ladies have been candidates for the legislative elections in comparison with 2,359 males. With 41% of candidates, parity is down in comparison with 2022, once they have been 44.2%.

In round thirty constituencies, no girl is working – whereas there is just one and not using a male candidate: within the third of Gironde, the outgoing RN deputy, Edwige Diaz, faces three contenders from LFI, Lutte Ouvrière (LO) and Renaissance.

Only one celebration revered good parity: LFI invested 117 males and 117 ladies. LO, MoDem and Europe-Ecologie Les Verts (EELV) are virtually equal, whereas the far-right events are getting nearer. On the opposite hand, Les Républicains and Les Amis d’Eric Ciotti (LR-RN alliance) invested primarily males.

More alliances, fewer nominations

  • On the left, 557 candidates from the New Popular Front… and a few 600 different candidates

The New Popular Front, the left-wing union created throughout this election, nominated a candidate in every of the 557 constituencies. It is LFI which is probably the most represented, though with a rebalancing in comparison with 2022, in favor of the Socialist Party (PS). The novelty in comparison with the alliance of the New Popular, Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) of 2022 lies within the presence of a candidate from the New Anticapitalist Party (NPA), Philippe Poutou. The coalition can also be represented in 26 constituencies by numerous left-wing, environmentalist or regionalist candidates.




Constituencies during which the NFP has invested candidates

The left union, nevertheless, isn’t unanimous since 16 candidates from the PS, LFI, Communist Party and the Génération·s motion have determined to stay. For its half, the NPA may even be current in round thirty constituencies dealing with an NFP candidate.

Finally, LO has nominated candidates in 550 constituencies, virtually as many as in 2022. The far-left celebration is the one which is deployed in probably the most constituencies, forward of the RN (if we don’t rely the alliance with Eric Ciotti).

  • A extra fragmented presidential coalition

There are 489 candidates nominated beneath the Ensemble pour la République banner, in comparison with 569 in 2022. Nearly half come from the ranks of Renaissance (297, together with 125 outgoing deputies), 78 from Modem (35 outgoing) and 77 candidates from Horizons (27 outgoing).




Constituencies during which Ensemble has invested candidates

The govt invested closely in these legislative elections, since, of the 35 members of the federal government, 24 stood as candidates, together with 11 within the Paris area. This is the case of Gabriel Attal, Stéphane Séjourné and Prisca Thévenot in Hauts-de-Seine, Olivia Grégoire and Stanislas Guerini in Paris, and even Franck Riester and Frédéric Valletoux in Seine-et-Marne .

  • A “republican arc” with variable geometry

The presidential celebration assumes a “republican arc” technique meant to dam the events they describe as “extreme”, particularly the RN and LFI, in 69 constituencies. No Ensemble candidate is working to favor LR, numerous heart or numerous left candidates.

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This is especially the case in three districts of Hauts-de-Seine (2e3e12e), the place the bulk celebration leaves the best way open to LR.

These are sometimes territories which are tough to win by the presidential majority. Thus, there isn’t a Ensemble candidate dealing with François Hollande, within the 1D constituency of Corrèze, nor within the second of the identical division. In Seine-Saint-Denis, Ensemble is absent from 5 constituencies, together with 4 the place the outgoing deputies are labeled LFI (3e5e6e and 10e constituencies) and a PS (8e).

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More uncommon, in sure constituencies, the outgoing Renaissance MP doesn’t stand for re-election and isn’t changed by one other candidate from the coalition. This is the case in 13e from the North, the place Christine Decodts lets the match be performed out between an LFI-NFP candidate, a dissident from the PS, an RN candidate and an LO.

  • The RN spares its allies

The National Rally, which goals for an absolute majority within the National Assembly, has solely nominated 498 candidates, in comparison with 567 in 2022. The novelty lies within the alliance it has managed to ascertain with the microparty of the president of the Republicans. , Les Amis d’Eric Ciotti, which brings him round sixty extra nominations.

https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2024/06/21/candidatures-aux-legislatives-2024-un-nombre-en-baisse-une-parite-en-recul-et-des-coalitions-heteroclites_6242166_4355770.html