The financial applications of the RN and the NFP: the massive blooper | EUROtoday

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Sn the political spectrum, the National Rally (RN) and the New Popular Front (NFP) are diametrically opposed. But studying the financial proposals of those two blocs, it’s tough to not see the similarities. As Sylvain Bersinger, chief economist on the consulting agency Asterès, writes in a latest word, “the two political parties develop a vision of the economy that is quite similar in its overall conception. Both defend the idea of ​​a French economy turned in on itself, based on stimulation through public spending and illusory budgetary closure, reflecting their respective obsessions.. The application of Marine Le Pen's 2022 program would increase the deficit by almost 100 billion euros, according to figures from the Montaigne Institute. The NFP program is estimated at 125 billion between 2024 and 2025. Certainly, macronism has not been a model in terms of public spending… In seven years, debt has swelled by 1,000 billion euros, the note of France was downgraded at the end of May by Standard & Poor's, and Brussels has just placed the country under excessive deficit procedure. But the problem does not only come from spending: the RN and NFP programs are characterized above all by an accumulation of… “common sense” options. But solely in look. Concerns about buying energy? So let's lock the costs. A necessity for quick recipes? Let's battle fraud, or make the wealthy pay. Behind many of those measures lie false good concepts, which can develop into ineffective, or worse, dangerous. Review of the largest stupidities.

On the expense aspect

Increase the minimal wage versus exemption from prices

The left alliance proposes to boost the minimal wage to 1,600 euros, a rise of 14%. This important enhance in labor prices may result in “job destruction, or at least make bosses reluctant to hire. That would be around 350,000 jobs that would be threatened, or that would not see the light of day”observes Bertrand Martinot, economist, employment specialist and former advisor to Nicolas Sarkozy.

The National Rally gives, for its half, an exemption from employer contributions for 5 years in change for a ten% wage enhance, as much as thrice the minimal wage. A reform with a excessive price, particularly since many VSEs-SMEs have neither the money movement nor the ample margins to use such a rise. As Stéphane Carcillo, professor of economics at Sciences Po Paris, places it: “This year, salary negotiations point to an increase of 4 to 5%, which is already good. It is therefore not certain that all VSEs-SMEs increase employees by 10%, even with the exemption from charges. »

Price blocking versus VAT reduction

The New Popular Front wants to block the prices of basic goods, food, energy and fuel. This measure has perverse effects: it can create shortages or price increases on other products. If the selling price is not high enough to offset the cost, companies may indeed choose to stop manufacturing the product in question. Or to raise the prices of other products they produce. Price freezing can also cost taxpayers if the government makes up the difference, as the electricity price shield has shown.

The reduction in VAT on energy and basic necessities products, advocated by the RN, is also a false good idea: this measure is expensive for questionable results. The drop is not always passed on in prices and, if it is, it primarily benefits wealthy people, who consume more. “It is better to use public money to put in place targeted measures for those who need themestimates Olivier Redoulès, director of studies at Rexecode. Furthermore, freezing prices or lowering VAT on energy products such as fuel runs counter to the climate objective.”he adds.

Down with globalization, long live protectionism

For both groups, globalization is the devil from which we must protect ourselves. “They defend the erroneous idea that the French economy would be more prosperous if it protected itself from international competition by customs barriers”, notes the Asterès agency. Both blocs show positions towards free commerce. The NFP requires the annulment of the treaty between the EU and Canada (Ceta). For its half, the RN needs a moratorium on the negotiation of latest free commerce agreements by the EU. And what about “the kilometer tax on imported merchandise” ? It doesn't maintain up in observe. “First, it is not in compliance with European law and WTO ruleswarns economist Patrick Artus. Then, if we tax imported products, our exports will be taxed in return, which will lead to a decline in our export competitiveness. Finally, it is an extremely inflationary measure. »

On the revenue side

The abolition of “billionaire privileges” for the NFP

In this system of the New Popular Front, the chapter heading devoted to taxation is entitled “Abolishing the privileges of billionaires”. But France's 68 billionaires are removed from being the one ones focused by this unbelievable bludgeoning. Here is this system: enhance the revenue tax from 4 to 14 brackets (at the moment solely 45% of households pay it), reestablish the ISF, however with a “climate component”delete the flat tax on capital revenue, reinstate a exit tax to attempt to dissuade tax exile, remove niches “inefficient, unfair and polluting”and so on. The implementation of this undertaking would in actuality quantity to suffocating the economic system of France, the place the tax burden is already the very best of all OECD nations, at 46% of nationwide wealth. According to Patrick Artus' calculations, such a program may trigger the tax burden to leap by round 6 factors, to 52% of nationwide wealth. Unheard of in comparable nations.

Fraud, the false jackpot that the RN fantasizes about

To persuade individuals of its budgetary seriousness, the National Rally makes use of an previous chorus: “There are many ways to save money in public spending. Fraud is one of them. » Jordan Bardella mentioned the figure of 15 billion euros per year. “It’s completely fanciful!” » reacts François Ecalle, former member of the High Council of Public Finances. In 2023, the State recovered 10.6 billion euros in tax catch-ups and penalties – a determine which has not modified in three years. The battle towards social fraud introduced in 2 billion – 1 billion for fraudulent advantages and the identical quantity for contribution fraud. That is lower than 13 billion euros in complete. If there’s room for enchancment, the goal of 15 billion stays out of attain, specialists estimate.

How a lot does it price ?

In phrases of encryption, the RN and the NFP haven’t opted for a similar technique. At the NFP, we announce the colour: the price of the financial program has been estimated at 125 billion euros for 2024 and 2025: 25 billion this 12 months, 100 billion subsequent 12 months. On the RN aspect, we most popular the good vagueness. The program has not usually been costed, with a single exception, which is the price of the discount in VAT on vitality costs (7 billion euros).