the RN and the New Popular Front nonetheless within the lead, the Macronist camp at 20% | EUROtoday

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MDespite the arrival of summer season, nothing new below the solar. Two days earlier than the primary spherical of early legislative elections, our newest Cluster17 estimate confirms the development in the direction of the polarization of the vote and the consolidation of voting intentions.

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Credited with 35% of the votes, in comparison with 34.5% final Tuesday, the National Rally (RN) stays within the lead, benefiting from an elevated variety of votes carried over from Reconquest voters. In slight lack of momentum, the New Popular Front (NFP) shows 29.5% of voting intentions (in comparison with 30%), nonetheless far forward of the presidential bloc at 20% (in comparison with 19.5%).

In projection in seats, an estimate which stays very unsure earlier than the outcomes of the primary spherical, the RN would outdistance its rivals by sending 210 to 255 deputies to the Assembly. The NFP would get hold of between 180 and 220 seats, and the bulk might reappoint 65 to 110 parliamentarians. The Republicans (LR) would compete for crumbs with the opposite lists, recovering respectively between 25 and 35 seats and between 20 and 30 seats.

86% of voters are positive of their alternative

“There is no notable dynamic,” summarizes Jean-Yves Dormagen, founding father of the Cluster17 institute and professor of political science on the University of Montpellier. “We are in a situation that seems quite crystallized, and which confirms what we have seen since the beginning: electorates very firmly positioned on their voting intentions, with very little hesitation and few second choices.”

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86% of voters who will vote are thus positive of their alternative, with a peak at 94% and 91%, respectively, for RN and NFP supporters. The stage of participation, barely up by 0.5% to achieve 65%, is “all the more remarkable since the French have already voted on June 9, notes the founder of Cluster17. A significant part of the population is aware that this is an important election, which mobilizes.”

“People seem to be more clear-cut about voting or abstaining,” he provides. However, 14% of voters say they might “still change their minds,” a better proportion amongst LR and Reconquête voters. These voters “tend to mainly turn to the RN, which explains why the LR-RN coalition will probably have more, or even significantly more, than its score in the European elections,” the pollster predicts.

The Republican entrance, cease or nonetheless?

“The great uncertainty of this election at this stage,” he continues, “is what the effect of the first round will be on the voters. How will voters react to the fact that the RN and Jordan Bardella have a relative, or even absolute, majority within reach? »

An observation undoubtedly “not completely integrated” by part of public opinion, particularly the centrist voters, whose reactions in the course of the interval between the 2 rounds will likely be decisive within the final result of the election. “Either we will see the establishment of a dynamic of amplification of the progression of the RN and its allies, or the results of this first round will on the contrary produce a reconstitution of a form of republican front”, launches Jean-Yves Dormagen .

READ ALSO Legislative: triangulars, how do they work? The potential abstention of voters within the present majority within the case of the RN-NFP duel has additionally declined over the previous week, going from 70% to 50%. “In 3 out of 4 cases, their vote would be for the NFP,” factors out the political science professor. We due to this fact returned to a state of affairs firstly of the marketing campaign, which had deteriorated, linked to the omnipresence of Jean-Luc Mélenchon within the media and to the bulk's narrative based mostly on the equating of two extremes. »

Today, this narrative has advanced just a little, as evidenced by Édouard Philippe's requires “a grand coalition that would go from the right to the ecological left as an alternative to the RN” and Gabriel Attal's positions extra virulent in the direction of the acute proper than the left in the course of the two televised debates of the week. “This discourse that comes from the most popular and important leaders of the presidential majority can impact voters,” confides Jean-Yves Dormagen.

Centrist voters, key to the election?

According to him, “political leaders from Sunday 8 p.m. will have an important role to play, depending on the positions they take.” Will they select to withdraw within the occasion of ending in third place throughout a triangular, as sure left-wing leaders have introduced in latest days? Will there be “a clear call from the leaders of the different camps to block the RN”? Will these selections result in a surge in participation, as was the case in 1997 between the 2 rounds? “If the Renaissance electorate, for example, abstains at 40% or 70% in the case of an NFP-RN duel, the result will not be the same,” remembers the pollster.

READ ALSO European elections: why younger folks don’t voteWill the vote be determined by majority voters? Jean-Yves Dormagen has little question: “The participation, mobilization and choice made by voters whose candidates have been eliminated in the first round will be absolutely decisive for the second round scenario. » For their part, the RN electorate seems less worried than the others about the results of these elections: 68% say that it “really matters to them to know who will win the early legislative election”, in comparison with 76% of Renaissance and 87% of NFP voters.

“It is an electorate on average a little less politicized, a little more skeptical towards politicians,” explains Jean-Yves Dormagen. He expects much less vital impression on his life from the election outcomes, it’s a considerably disillusioned voters. » And to conclude: “Most voters assume that the RN will win these elections, and reply this query with this concept in thoughts. […] I additionally learn their response as the truth that those that worry the RN worry it with extra depth than those that hope for it. » Are their fears based? Verdict this Sunday, at 8 p.m.–28-06-2024-2564269_20.php