The vote of worry: France chooses between two extremisms, the middle can disappear | EUROtoday

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PARIS – These are the elections of worry, the French legislative elections of 2024. The worry of the French of small cities, who see public companies, and even some personal companies, transferring away and disappearing; the worry of the French of huge cities, who worry a step backwards of the open society wherein they dwell and prosper, overwhelmed by excessive financial, social and institutional packages; the worry of politicians who might see their aims slip away; the worry of the president, Emmanuel Macron, who will probably be pressured to seriously change his function.

The Return of Political Polarization

Perhaps by no means earlier than have the stakes been so excessive. The election marketing campaign has been dominated by the return of political polarization. The heart appears to be emptying: the Macronians are struggling, busy as by no means earlier than within the constituencies, on the telephone, searching for votes, however in a local weather of demobilization. The Républicains worry disappearance, after President Eric Ciotti tried an settlement with the novel proper of the Rassemblement nationwide: a failed aggregation, which nevertheless has proven not solely the divisions of the occasion, but additionally its problem find a particular political proposal. The Socialists, who had obtained fascinating leads to the European elections, have joined the Nouveau Front Populaire, a really heterogeneous electoral cartel marked by the intransigence of the France Insoumise, to counter the RN. On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon's occasion, the Communist Party, and partly the Greens – extra pragmatic than elsewhere – add their radicalités, particularly on the financial stage. On the correct, the Rassemblement National, regardless of its dé-diabolisation, its try to seem and turn out to be extra average in tone, stays a political pressure exterior to the republican, social democratic framework, and guarantees to overwhelm the institutional framework with a really conflictual cohabitation with and towards the president.

Strongly growing participation

Never earlier than have these elections been as unsure. Polls are all the time troublesome in a two-round system, however this time they’re sophisticated by a voter turnout anticipated to develop: round 65% from 47% in 2022. Votes forged by proxy, allowed in France, have already exceeded two million towards 500,000 two years in the past and there are nonetheless strains outdoors the police stations at hand out the assignments. Online votes, by French individuals overseas, have already reached 410,000, towards 225,000 two years in the past.

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Very unsure polls

Even a really brief election marketing campaign prevents us from figuring out clear and dependable tendencies within the polls. In any case, the Rassemblement nationwide (together with the Républicains who adopted Ciotti and sided with the novel proper) appears to have gained some factors in consensus, rising from 34.7% to 36.5%: precisely the other of the “shock » what President Emmanuel Macron hoped for when he dissolved the Assembly. The Républicains, after an preliminary restoration, returned to round 7%. The presidential majority gained little or no, going from 19% to twenty.1% and the Nouveau entrance populaire, which introduced itself as strongly anti-right and anti-Macron, remained basically secure, going from 28.7% to twenty-eight.6%. .