Live markets | The French Stock Market costs the results of the elections with will increase and it infects the Ibex | Financial markets | EUROtoday

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The markets are pricing the results of the primary spherical of the French legislative elections larger. One hour after the opening, the Spanish Ibex rose 1%, whereas the Cac index of the Paris Stock Exchange has softened its will increase and is up 1.5%. Despite his victory, Le Pen's get together isn’t assured an absolute majority heading into the second spherical. The prospect that candidates from the left and Macron's get together might withdraw to pay attention the vote towards the far proper opens the door to a shorter Le Pen majority than the market feared. The French inventory market has fallen 5% and the chance premium has risen to its highest ranges since 2012 since Emmanuel Macron introduced ahead the legislative elections, the day after the victory of the acute proper within the European elections.

The rise within the French inventory market is affecting the remainder of the European markets, not simply the Ibex 35. The Euro Stoxx 50, the primary benchmark within the eurozone, is up 0.9% and the Italian inventory market, extra delicate to political dangers on account of its excessive ranges of debt and public deficit, is up 1.6%. “With this result in France, the electoral scenario remains very open and therefore it is not out of the question that we will continue to experience a certain amount of uncertainty until the second round is held,” say Bankinter analysts.

Pedro del Pozo, from the supervisor Mutualidad, is equally cautious: “The possibility of an openly Eurosceptic parliament in France generates numerous doubts in the market. The debate centers on whether, in the event of a victory for Le Pen in the second round, his government would adopt a position similar to that of Meloni in Italy. “This uncertainty is not favorable for the French economy or its future stability.”

On the foreign money market, the euro can be up 0.36% (it was as soon as 0.6%) towards the greenback. And in debt, a barometer of market sensitivity to the turbulence within the Eurozone, the French threat premium is down, however timidly, simply three foundation factors. The 10-year bond is buying and selling at 3.315% (1.7 foundation factors greater than on Friday) in comparison with 3.438% for the German bond (six extra). More notable is the downward motion of the Italian premium: the bond is down 1.3 factors. In Spain, the rate of interest on debt is up two foundation factors however the premium is down 4 because of the better rise in German debt.

The shares that rose probably the most in Spain are Acciona, its inexperienced subsidiary, and Colonial, with will increase of greater than 2.2%. Banking, delicate to threat premiums, has lowered its preliminary earnings and recorded 1.7% within the case of Santander and 1.6% in CaixaBank. On the opposite facet of the size, Rovi leads the cuts with a drop of 1.8%, whereas Solaria, Fluidra and Inditex lower between 0.1% and 0.5%. Also in France, banking reveals robust will increase: Société Générale, Crédit Agricole and BNP Paribas rise greater than 4%.

Investment banks spotlight the excessive participation registered on this Sunday's elections, 65.8%, the best since 1997, and emphasize that the Renaissance Party of President Emmanuel Macron and his Ensemble alliance has been displaced to 3rd place with 21% of the votes. Ahead have been the National Rally (RN), Marine Le Pen's get together, with 33.2% of the votes, and the New Popular Front (NFP), with 28.1%. According to projections, Le Pen's get together might get hold of between 230 and 280 seats within the second spherical on Sunday, July 7; whereas NFP might attain between 125 and 165.

UBS outlines two most important areas of uncertainty: first, the end result of the election. Scenarios embody an absolute majority for both the Rassemblement National (RN) or the left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), which might result in cohabitation; a minority authorities led by certainly one of these events; or a hung parliament, which might possible result in political impasse. “The preliminary results of the first round suggest that all three scenarios remain possible,” the Swiss financial institution mentioned. “Second, assuming a new prime minister with an absolute majority, proposals for increased spending could clash with EU fiscal rules.”

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https://cincodias.elpais.com/mercados-financieros/2024-07-01/la-bolsa-y-el-ibex-35-en-directo.html