an meeting divided between nearly equal RN, NFP and centrist blocs? | EUROtoday

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LThe Republican Front model 2024 appears to be doing its job. Two days earlier than the second spherical of early legislative elections, our newest Cluster17 estimate offers an Assembly that may be a priori fully ungovernable, divided nearly equally between three antagonistic blocs. The New Popular Front (NFP) would receive between 165 and 195 seats, the presidential majority would re-elected 130 to 160 deputies and the National Rally (RN) would elect between 170 and 210 parliamentarians.

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“There is a blockade vote against the RN coming to power,” notes Jean-Yves Dormagen, founding father of the Cluster 17 institute and professor of political science on the University of Montpellier. The state of affairs has modified lots since final Sunday: in a single week the decision for a republican entrance from the left and a part of the Macronist leaders has labored effectively.”

The absolute majority for the RN is becoming completely out of reach.

So much so that today, according to him, “absolutely the majority for the RN is turning into fully out of attain. We are even arriving at this considerably sudden state of affairs, the place the RN will most likely be barely within the lead however the two different blocs will probably be of fairly substantial measurement.”

This “double convergence of the left-wing voters on the Ensemble candidates, and partially of centrist voters on the NFP candidates, will most likely permit the candidates of the 2 blocs to win many duels in opposition to the National Rally,” he explains. There are still about half of the voters in the center who do not vote in an RN-NFP duel, but the majority of those who vote will do so for the left. This is what rebalances the balance of power and prevents the RN from approaching the majority.”

Unless it over-mobilises the RN voters, who take into account that this time, victory is feasible? So far, participation is in any case estimated at ranges “fairly close to last week” by Cluster17.

Towards an unprecedented political state of affairs

While these forecasts clearly stay unsure and topic to margins of error, “the RN still seems very, very far from the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority,” remembers the founding father of Cluster17. The ranges stay fairly huge, since many constituencies are nonetheless “very undecided, 2 or 3 points apart,” however the state of affairs of an absolute majority appears “extremely improbable” on this remaining estimate. Especially since it will indicate an alliance with the LR, themselves typically elected in a blockade logic…

“There might even be a sort of proportionalisation of the National Assembly, which would look a bit like what the National Assembly would be like if we voted by proportional representation,” he notes.

From then on, there are “several possible scenarios”, based on the political scientist. First a state of affairs “of a grand coalition, which would bring together all the deputies with the exception of La France insoumise and the RN. A sort of vast government of union of the communists with the LR, even if it is not in the French political culture with political parties very opposed on many subjects”. He additionally imagines “a government without a stable base in Parliament, which builds circumstantial majorities with a Prime Minister from civil society”, or “a fairly long period of vacancy, as some democracies know – the Belgians, the Italians…”.

READ ALSO Legislative elections: is the “republican front” useless? A technical authorities “is also one of the options,” based on Jean-Yves Dormagen, with the benefit of “depoliticizing the coalition. And so it is easier for very distant political parties to agree to converge and vote together on a subject that is not explicitly political.” In any case, he concludes, “we will enter Sunday evening into a political situation to which we are not accustomed, which has no precedent under the Fifthe Republic “.