Avoid Le Pen Now, Mélenchon Tomorrow: France's Double Challenge | EUROtoday

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from our correspondent in Paris

Two blocs face off on July 7. Three blocs, partially totally different, from the next day. France faces a two-fold problem in these legislative elections. Today, on the vote, the Rassemblement National (RN), with its program that successfully challenges French and European establishments, goals to win an absolute majority, or a minimum of a strong relative majority, which may be strengthened with some alliance. On the alternative aspect, all the opposite events, united by a raillement – ​​a rally, but in addition a battle – to keep away from a authorities that’s too radical.

Tomorrow, France could already current itself in another way: the camp of the intolerant democracy of Rn, compelled to coexist and adapt to a constitutional system that’s nonetheless liberal-democratic, will likely be opposed by a celebration of radical democracy, La France Insoumise (Lfi) of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who has already introduced that he needs to remain out of any speculation of a broad coalition authorities in order to not water down his program, and the huge “republican” camp, animated by many mutual reservations, of liberal democracy, which matches from the socialists and the ecologists to the Républicains, passing by means of the Macronists.

A vote nonetheless open

The first step, the vote, continues to be open. The alliances are concluded, however it’s not sure that the voting directions will likely be revered, that left-wing voters will truly vote, for instance the Minister of the Interior Gérald Darmanin, too “police-like”, or the previous prime minister Elisabeth Borne who handed the pension reform; and quite the opposite it could possibly be tough for a Macronian to vote for some candidates of the left. The marketing campaign is quarrelsome, there have been acts of violence, even critical ones – a Macronian militant had her jaw damaged – and in Paris right now 30 thousand gendarmes are energetic. Even inside households there are arguments, bitterly, concerning the vote.

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The RN believes it might probably nonetheless attain an absolute majority, as does the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), the union of all of the lefts, together with the LFI; and it’s obscure how a lot of that is an electoral marketing campaign and the way a lot is a transparent and evident indication of their potential. The polls on the seats, statistically very weak, don’t attribute to anybody an absolute majority of a minimum of 289 seats. The pattern – which places the acute knowledge into perspective – of the surveys carried out after the primary spherical now assigns between 191 and 220 seats to the RN, between 167 and 187 to the NFP, between 106 and 130 to the presidential alliance Ensemble – and this might be a feat, given the beginning circumstances – and between 28 and 48 seats to the Républicains and their allies.