“It is impossible for an LFI Prime Minister to gather an absolute majority” | EUROtoday

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QWho would be the subsequent Prime Minister? After the shock outcomes of the New Popular Front (NFP), which gained 178 seats on Sunday, July 7, the left-wing coalition now desires of just one factor: having its personal Prime Minister at Matignon. But not solely that. Constituting the brand new relative majority within the National Assembly, the NFP intends to implement its electoral program.

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However, regardless of his hopes, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who “is absolutely not disqualified” for this place, in keeping with Mathilde Panot, has little or no likelihood of turning into the following head of presidency. Other names on the left are circulating to take over from Gabriel Attal, such because the socialists Boris Vallaud or Olivier Faure, or the chief of the Ecologists, Marine Tondelier. The completely different events of the NFP ought to suggest a standard title for Matignon through the week.

The present Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, who had proposed his resignation to President Emmanuel Macron, will stay in workplace “for the time being” with a view to “ensure the stability of the country”.

But what choices are left to the president? Insights from Stéphane Rozès, political scientist, president of CAP (Conseils, Analyses et Perspectives), trainer on the Catholic Institute of Paris and writer of Chaos, an essay on the creativeness of peoples (Deer, 2022).

Point : To succeed Gabriel Attal, the situation most mentioned since Sunday night is the appointment of a Prime Minister from the New Popular Front, which makes up the brand new relative majority. In your opinion, can Emmanuel Macron chorus from selecting a Prime Minister from the left?

Stephane Rozes : First of all, we should return to the spirit of the establishments. We have moved from a semi-presidential regime to a now semi-parliamentary regime after these legislative elections. It is now as much as essentially the most highly effective coalition, the New Popular Front, to determine a Prime Minister with a roadmap, in order that the President of the Republic is ready to appoint him with a view to finally get hold of a authorities majority. That is the spirit of the establishments.

READ ALSO On the left, there may be already a rush on the Matignon gateStrategically, within the context of a nomination settlement for Matignon, to keep away from a blockage of the Assembly and to have the ability to implement its program, is LFI not disqualified, in view of its robust opposition with the presidential camp?

As quickly because the outcomes have been identified, Jean-Luc Mélenchon had a transparent formulation: the New Popular Front should implement its total program, nothing however its program. It is subsequently as much as LFI to implement with out moderation, with out compromise. The names of Mathilde Panot, Manuel Bompard or Clémence Guetté will most likely be put ahead through the negotiations at the moment underway.

But that’s with out bearing in mind an arithmetic rule of two sorts. Within the NFP, an alliance of the Socialist Party, the Miscellaneous Left and the dissident LFI deputies might represent a pole permitting the PS to have a majority on LFI. Then, the PS might additionally ally itself with the weakened Communist Party and the Ecologists.

READ ALSO “Mélenchon is a convinced Germanophobe”: Germans relieved however nervousThis arithmetic inside the NFP is vital since it’s a query for either side of the problem of justifying the alternatives made to the voters, even when we should always not child ourselves: the legitimacy of the NFP deputies is partly because of the help of the Macronist proper within the face of the National Rally. We should bear in mind this, which the NFP tends to neglect.

The backside line is that this: it’s inconceivable for an LFI Prime Minister to assemble an absolute majority. Two eventualities end result from this: both a socialist is appointed to Matignon, equivalent to Olivier Faure or Boris Vallaud, with the help of LFI and Ensemble, main partly to the implementation of a part of the NFP program, or a break happens between LFI and the opposite left-wing forces and a socialist Prime Minister is appointed with the help of the presidential camp and LR.

But these eventualities stay, resulting from arithmetic, very unstable.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon at Matignon, an unimaginable appointment?

Let us be cautious, however Jean-Luc Mélenchon being appointed to Matignon stays unlikely for 3 causes. First, the NFP's refusal to decide on him. Second, the speculation that he would put together for the following presidential election. Third, the speculation of an LFI Prime Minister appears to me to nonetheless omit the truth that, with a view to implement all the program of the New Popular Front, LFI wants not less than the passive help of Ensemble.

READ ALSO Mélenchon should be demonized​​​​Do you assume that, just like the German or Italian regimes, we might have a Prime Minister from a coalition between the left, the presidential camp and Les Républicains?

This will not be our custom, however, necessity being the regulation, we must discover a character who might make such an eventuality doable. This would imply a break inside the New Popular Front, with socialists able to just accept compromises.

There can be the situation of a technical authorities. Given the composition of the National Assembly, is that this speculation nonetheless conceivable?

When we discuss technical authorities, in actuality, it’s nothing of the kind. A authorities is at all times political, even whether it is headed by technicians. Because all technical selections stay political selections. So, if there have been a very technical authorities, it might cope with present affairs for a 12 months, the time of a brand new dissolution.

I don't imagine it, since in September the European Commission is because of reprimand France over its public funds.

READ ALSO Olivier Babeau: “We are in the midst of economic denialism!” What if all these eventualities fail?

The final resolution can be the departure of the President of the Republic. The Assembly stays tough to manipulate. The President had referred to as for clarification, first he misplaced on the substance however from an arithmetic standpoint, the National Assembly is much more unstable than it was earlier than the dissolution.

In your opinion, which speculation stays essentially the most believable?

The most believable and doable situation, for my part, is a socialist Prime Minister benefiting from the help, or not less than the non-opposition, of La France Insoumise and the Ensemble group.