Why the French are having fewer youngsters: local weather anxiousness, housing, buying energy… | EUROtoday

“France, beyond the graves, seeks the cradles; will you remain deaf to its prayer?”implored Paul Deschanel, future President of the Republic, in 1919, after the carnage of the First World War. More than a century later, in January, Emmanuel Macron additionally started a pro-natalist chorus, advocating, in a curiously martial expression, a “demographic rearmament”.

The battle, this time, shouldn’t be happening within the trenches, however within the alcoves: the French, who within the 2000s have been on a par with Ireland by way of start fee, are having fewer and fewer infants. In 2010, 832,799 youngsters have been born in France (excluding Mayotte), in accordance with INSEE. In 2023, there have been solely 678,000 births, the bottom degree because the Second World War. The fall within the start fee, over 13 years, is fixed and important and has tended to speed up after the pandemic. The fertility indicator, which measures the variety of youngsters per girl, fell from 2.03 in 2010 to 1.68. Below, subsequently, the fateful threshold of two.1 wanted to make sure generational renewal.

THE “demographic rearmament” So would it not be a political matter? France, in fact, has an extended historical past of household insurance policies primarily based on socio-fiscal measures. These have been first considerably tightened in 1998, with the introduction of resource-based household allowances, then in 2015, once they have been modulated in accordance with revenue. At the identical time, the tax benefits linked to the presence of youngsters within the residence have been decreased.

A world threatened by wars

Has this prompted the French to scale back the dimensions of their households? Not so positive, replies Julien Damon, former analysis director on the National Family Allowance Fund, professor at HEC and creator of an essay on the topic. “The consensus of demographic and economic studies is that the link between family policies and fertility is very tenuous.”he observes. This is evidenced by the final decline in fertility all through the world, whatever the household insurance policies pursued by governments.

In South Korea, for instance, spending on childbearing rose from 0.2% to 0.6% of gross home product between 2000 and 2020, in accordance with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. To no avail: fertility, at 0.78 youngsters per girl, stays one of many lowest on this planet.

In truth, household insurance policies should not a figuring out consider {couples}' selections to have a baby. A survey performed by Elabe for the Montaigne Institute, following Macron's statements on the “demographic rearmament”printed on 1^er February, reveals that, for the French, the primary impediment to the will to have a baby is financial: it’s buying energy that’s the drawback. The concept of ​​elevating one's offspring in a world threatened by wars, local weather change and different scourges is sort of on a par with this financial constraint. “Allocations” and household coverage are solely talked about final.

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