How a French gambler’s big guess spiked Trump’s odds on Polymarket – and why it could threaten democracy | EUROtoday
Over the final three months, 4 accounts on a preferred playing website have positioned hundreds of bets totalling greater than $50 million on Donald Trump profitable the US presidential election subsequent week. The bets, positioned on prediction platform Polymarket, seem to have skewed the percentages massively in Trump’s favour on the location, with the whole determine representing roughly 2 per cent of all bets positioned on the 2024 elections.
The 4 accounts – Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie – have been traced again to a single French nationwide with “extensive trading experience and [a] financial services background”, in keeping with an announcement from Polymarket. The betting platform stated there was no proof that the dealer had positioned the bets to intentionally enhance Trump’s odds, although the incident has proved how straightforward it’s for one rich particular person to govern the market.
The newest figures from Polymarket give Trump a 66 per cent likelihood of beating Democratic rival Kamala Harris, who has only a one-in-three likelihood of taking the White House by these odds. Meanwhile, the newest nationwide polling common compiled by RealClearPolitics has a Trump victory at simply 48.4 per cent and a Harris win at 48 per cent.
Some worry that the massively inflated odds may very well be utilized by Trump as proof that the election was stolen, whereas regulators have warned that playing websites like Polymarket signify a big risk to electoral integrity.
Many of Trump’s supporters are already sharing screenshots of the newest odds on social media as proof that victory is inevitable. Trump ally Elon Musk shared a screenshot on X of the Republican candidate’s rising lead in betting markets, claiming it was “more accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line”.
Conservative commentator Joe Kernen, who seems on CNBC’s Squawk Box, has steadily referred to the percentages on-air and shared screenshots of Trump’s Polymarket odds on social media. Conversely, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg described the betting market odds as “Polymarket voodoo”, including that “any analyst who takes it seriously should be ignored”.
Polymarket, which is backed by billionaire Trump-supporter Peter Thiel, permits individuals to guess on the result of future occasions utilizing cryptocurrency. Currently solely customers outdoors the US are in a position to make use of it to guess on the US elections, although the semi-anonymous nature of cryptocurrency, mixed with applied sciences like digital personal networks (VPNs), make it attainable to bypass the platform’s phrases of service.
Rules are additionally shifting to favour on-line playing websites relating to elections within the US. Last month, a federal decide within the US overturned a ban on betting on election ends in the nation, which had been imposed by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Online betting markets have already positioned TV adverts throughout Trump rallies, with Kalshi providing viewers of Right Side Broadcasting Network $175 from a $100 guess on a victory for the Republican candidate. Popular buying and selling platform Robinhood has additionally begun providing election bets this week, opening up the market to tens of millions extra potential voters.
The CFTC claims that election betting “ultimately commoditises and degrades the integrity of the uniquely American experience of participating in the democratic electoral process”, in keeping with an announcement put out in May by Rostin Behnam, chairman of the monetary regulator.
Political figures have additionally warned of the potential risks posed by on-line playing websites relating to elections. In a letter to regulators final yr, US Senators claimed that Polymarket and different playing websites pose a “clear threat to our democracy”.
The letter, which was co-signed by outstanding Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren, argued that the “mass commodification” of the democratic course of would essentially undermine its integrity.
“Introducing financial incentives into the elections process fundamentally changes the motivations behind each vote, potentially replacing political convictions with financial calculations,” the letter said.
“For example, billionaires could expand their already outsized influence on politics by wagering extraordinary bets while simultaneously contributing to a specific candidate or party. There are strong ethics concerns as political insiders privy to non-public information could wield their inside information to profit at voters’ expense.
“Lastly, these bets could sway the outcome of our elections, undermining the voices of voters. If citizens believe that the democratic process is being influenced by those with financial stakes, it may further exacerbate the disenfranchisement and distrust of voters already facing our nation.”
New investigations by crypto analysis corporations Chaos Labs and Inca Digital have discovered that Polymarket exercise reveals indicators of market manipulation, with such buying and selling forming round one third of all buying and selling on the presidential elections.
The stories, first reported by Fortune, additional name into query the accuracy of the location. The Independent has reached out to Polymarket for remark.
Writing on X final week, Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan described his creation as a “reality check” that extends far past the US elections.
“Hopefully politics is the first step to get the masses to realise the value of market-based forecasts,” he wrote.
“The market sets the price, not the operator. There is no ‘house’ setting the odds. It’s the invisible hand, not the thumb on the scale… As these markets get more popular, liquid, and accessible, we foresee a world where markets guide decision making, and opinions are backed by capital. The downstream effect is an information landscape with less sensationalism and more truth.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/polymarket-trump-betting-odds-latest-b2638206.html