the 5 keys to the Trump-Harris duel | EUROtoday
Dn an categorical marketing campaign lasting a little bit over three months, nothing may have moved the traces. Neither the assassination try on Trump, nor the summer time conventions, nor the televised debate. Just a few days earlier than the presidential election on November 5, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are ending this dash as they began it: completely tied within the polls, each nationally and within the seven “swing states”, this handful of states the place victory within the electoral faculty will likely be determined. Here are the 5 elements that might play a decisive function.
1. Participation
This is probably the most troublesome issue for polling institutes to anticipate. Donald Trump has what American political scientists name a “ high floor–low ceiling »: a high electoral floor, because its “MAGA” base, notably motivated, mobilizes no matter occurs; however its ceiling, its most rating, stays low up to now, as a result of a majority of Americans reject it.
One of the keys to the Trump-Harris election: participation. – In 2016, low turnout: Trump wins most swing states. – In 2020, participation is +6 pts however Trump solely +0.7 pt: he loses. It’s his “high floor / low ceiling” pic.twitter.com/u1nCdrW4V1
— Philippe Berry (@ptiberry) October 28, 2024
Technically, he scored higher in 2020 (46.8%), when he misplaced, than in 2016 (46.10%), when he received. This is particularly as a result of participation has elevated considerably (+ 6 factors) but in addition as a result of the Republican got here up towards his ceiling. Her victory in 2016 was above all a poor efficiency by Hillary Clinton, notably amongst minorities in Detroit, Philadelphia and Milwaukee.
ALSO READ Is Trump evolving from populism to fascism, as one historian claims? This yr, the scenario has developed: Trump is predicted to progress nationally, notably because of his beneficial properties in populous states like Florida, New York and California. But within the three most important states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), the upper the participation, the extra likelihood Kamala Harris may have of successful.
2. The vote of black and Latino males
The gender divide, which has existed because the Nineteen Eighties, is widening a little bit additional. In the swing states, Donald Trump dominates Kamala Harris amongst males by a niche of between 12 factors (Pennsylvania) and 35 factors (North Carolina). Conversely, Harris has a lead of between 13 factors (Georgia) and 25 factors (North Carolina) amongst girls.
What’s new this yr is the extent of Donald Trump’s breakthrough within the male voters amongst younger individuals, Latinos and African-Americans. They are seduced by his picture as a businessman and decide that the Democratic Party has moved too far to the left on societal points. America has moved from a racial vote to a category vote. The most figuring out criterion is now the extent of training: these with few {qualifications} favor Trump, these with larger training, Harris.
ALSO READ American presidential election: “The Democrats have weakened black men” If the Republican makes 20-25% amongst African-American males in North Carolina and Georgia, it turns into troublesome for Harris. Ditto in Arizona and Nevada whether it is round 50% amongst Latino males, as measured by a ballot for USA Today. Harris must compensate amongst girls, notably amongst Republicans and independents. The excellent news for her is that the gender divide, if at 2020 ranges, provides her a bonus in Michigan and Pennsylvania – particularly since girls vote in higher numbers than males. males.
3. The vote of the Arab-Muslim neighborhood in Michigan
During the first, the revolt of the Arab-Muslim neighborhood over Gaza price Joe Biden 100,000 votes in Michigan. If so many citizens deserted Kamala Harris in favor of inexperienced candidate Jill Stein, Michigan might flip: Trump received by 10,700 votes in 2016 and misplaced by 154,000 votes in 2020. If she loses Michigan , Harris must seize a Southern state.
4. Americans’ priorities
Two in three Americans imagine the nation is heading within the flawed route, however they disagree that Harris, the outgoing vice chairman, or Trump, who preceded Biden within the White House, is the fitting individual. finest positioned to embody change.
ALSO READ American presidential election: the financial system, justice of the peace between Trump and HarrisVoters will vote on 4 main points: the financial system, immigration, the protection of abortion and the protection of democracy. Donald Trump largely dominates on the border, however his lead on the price of dwelling has narrowed. Conversely, Harris is within the lead on abortion, however rather less on the safety of establishments. It could possibly be helped by referendums on abortion in Arizona and Nevada.
5. The undecided
To Discover
Kangaroo of the day
Answer
Less than one in ten Americans are nonetheless hesitant. Trump’s persona repels them as a lot because the vagueness of Kamala Harris’ program and her altering positions. In 2016, the undecided represented a decisive factor in Trump’s victory over Clinton.
There stays one X issue: the impression of the top of Donald Trump’s marketing campaign. His authoritarian rhetoric might scare away some independents, and the racist joke about Puerto Rico from one among his supporters will price him dearly in Pennsylvania’s massive Latino neighborhood. And we repeat: whoever wins in Pennsylvania has an excellent likelihood of changing into the following president of the United States.
https://www.lepoint.fr/monde/presidentielle-americaine-les-cinq-cles-du-duel-trump-harris-31-10-2024-2574125_24.php