Zelensky’s newest Ukraine-Russia conflict plan is a ‘major concession’ to Putin, says former UK ambassador | EUROtoday

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Volodymyr Zelensky’s suggestion that Ukraine may quickly cede territory to Russia in alternate for becoming a member of Nato would mark a “major concession” to Vladimir Putin, the UK’s former ambassador to Russia has mentioned.

In a major growth on the path to a possible ceasefire after 33 months of battle, the Ukrainian president indicated for the primary time that Kyiv may settle for Russian management over a few of its territory with a purpose to finish the “hot phase of the war”.

With Moscow showing to ramp up its push for territory in Ukraine’s east forward of Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January, Mr Zelensky instructed Sky News that peace may very well be struck if territory he controls is taken “under the Nato umbrella”, permitting him to barter the return of the remainder later “in a diplomatic way”.

Praising Mr Zelensky as “playing a very sophisticated game”, Sir Tony Brenton – who served as ambassador to Russia between 2004 and 2008 – instructed the broadcaster: “He knows that Trump is about to descend on him and on Russia. He is already arranging to have something to offer Trump.

“What he is suggesting in many ways is bringing us much closer to the obvious target area, which is a freeze in the fighting where the lines actually currently are, and then an eventual negotiation about who retains which bit of territory, and then security guarantees for Ukraine in the course of that ceasefire.”

Warning that Nato membership for Ukraine is “frankly going to be very, very difficult”, he mentioned that Mr Zelensky’s assertion that he’s ready to see a ceasefire after which negotiate the return of Russian-occupied territory in Ukraine over the long term could be considered by Mr Putin as a concession.

“That is actually quite a major concession, because the longer term could be a very long time indeed,” he mentioned, including: “[Putin] will say to himself, ‘ah, they are feeling weak, I can press for more’. That is a danger if we go into this.”

The Russian president is at the moment “keeping his cards very close to his chest” by way of his views on methods to finish the battle, which he believes he’s profitable, mentioned Sir Tony. Moscow’s troops have been making regular positive aspects in Ukraine’s east – however at a price of incurring doubtlessly file casualties.

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Concurring with this view, James Nixey of the Chatham House think-tank warned that any a part of Ukraine being in Nato could be unacceptable to Mr Putin.

“After all, it is, for him, an abhorrence. Putin doesn’t want a pause anyway – he believes he’s on the brink of an historic and strategic victory, kindly deal-sealed by Donald Trump,” Mr Nixey instructed The Independent.

But if such a deal had been to be struck, each Kyiv and its allies would be capable of current it as a victory in securing “a free democratic Ukraine linked to the West”, Sir Tony mentioned.

In additional remarks to Sky News, the UK’s former consultant to Nato, Sir Adam Thomson, mentioned that Mr Zelensky seemed to be making ready home audiences for compromises, whereas “making opening moves” in a probable prolonged negotiation with Mr Trump over which line to take with the Kremlin.

“He’s moving Ukraine to a much more realistic position. Still not necessarily an achievable one, but more realistic,” mentioned Sir Adam, including that round three quarters of Nato’s members consider membership for Kyiv “would be the least bad outcome, in the sense of being the least expensive and the most stable”.

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Were such a deal to be struck, it might require Nato troops – together with from Britain – to defend Ukraine’s borders, together with its northern border with Belarus, mentioned Mr Nixey, including: “Whether Nato is fully prepared for this eventuality is open to question.”

Throughout the battle, Mr Zelensky has by no means mentioned he would cede any occupied Ukrainian territory, together with Crimea, which Russia occupied in February 2014. In September 2022, Russia unilaterally declared its annexation of 4 Ukrainian areas – Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia – regardless of not controlling all of these territories.

Yet conflict analysts say Russia has been gaining territory in latest weeks on Ukraine’s japanese entrance on the quickest tempo because the early days of the conflict, as each Moscow and Kyiv stay up for Mr Trump’s return in January. The US president-elect has claimed he may finish the conflict “in a day”.

Historian Dr Mark Galeotti, writer of Forged in War: A Military History of Russiamentioned Mr Zelensky’s feedback partly probably replicate “the unfolding political and military realities, as the Russians continue to advance and Donald Trump’s shadow looms over everything”.

“But I think it may also be Zelensky’s attempt to, in effect, call the West’s bluff,” Dr Galeotti instructed The Independent. “Actually getting all Nato’s 32 members to agree to a quick membership would be very difficult, but in effect he is asking, ‘if not the Article 5 security guarantee, what else could be offered?’”

Mr Zelensky’s ex-foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba mentioned earlier this week that it was inconceivable that he may signal a deal surrendering territory, telling Politico: “The Russians keep the Donbas, they keep Crimea, no Nato membership. Can Zelensky sign? He cannot because of the Constitution. And because it will be the end of Zelensky politically.”

Last month, Mr Zelensky unveiled his “victory plan”, which requires Ukraine’s unconditional accession to Nato, a refusal to commerce Ukraine’s territories at the moment occupied by Russian forces, and the continuation of the Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk area.