Putin and Iran are 2 big losers in Syria – however UK should be careful too | Politics | News | EUROtoday

The velocity of the takeover has taken everybody without warning. Most thought that the Syrian forces, albeit with out the dimensions of assist as soon as accessible to them from Russia and Iran would nonetheless be capable to tackle this rag bag of factions led by the intense HTS management.

Instead, the West’s intelligence providers have been caught napping.

As Assad’s airplane flew him and his household off to exile in Russia, nobody has a clue now as to what HTS and the opposite teams will do and maybe most significantly whether or not this takeover by HTS is nice information or dangerous.

What is for certain nonetheless is that it is a defeat for Russia and much more importantly, Iran.

The collapse of Assad’s regime began 24^th February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.

For as Russia received an increasing number of slowed down in that horrible warfare of attrition, with their armed forces taking a horrible pounding, their capability to challenge pressure in assist of Assad had disappeared.

Yet it was Hamas, little question directed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps that put the ultimate nail on the coffin of Assad’s regime when it brutally attacked Israel on October 7^th massacring 1250 Israeli civilians and taking 250 hostages.

That’s as a result of in retaliation, Israel didn’t maintain again. Its response has gone a lot additional than even its strongest ally the USA may probably have imagined.

The level is that Israel didn’t simply goal Hamas – which it has accomplished relentlessly nevertheless it determined it needed to deal a extreme blow to Hezbollah in Lebanon as nicely.

As a putative ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel now exhibits, Hezbollah’s capability to battle, as Iran’s navy proxy, has been hammered by Israel.

As its two Proxies Hamas and Hezbollah are a shadow of their former selves and with its ally Assad ousted, Iran seems weak and anxious.

They aren’t the one ones to be anxious. The West must do some laborious pondering. That’s as a result of we don’t appear to have discovered from the so-called Arab Spring. We assumed then that as regimes toppled individuals would crave democracy but that didn’t occur. Instead, many turned to Islamic extremists usually turning to chaos and civil warfare. We would do nicely to recall how ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) grew in energy and territory in a short time and in plain sight.

What is evident is that Turkey has been supporting HTS for its personal causes, it’s seemingly it’s to get again on the Kurds which management the Northern space of Syria in the intervening time and for whom Erdogan has deep hatred.

What is nonetheless clear is that HTS isn’t a coalition of well-meaning democrats and freedom lovers. HTS is a jihadist group with origins in Al Qaeda. It is extremely seemingly that issues may get much more risky within the Middle East. I’m certain Israel won’t welcome HTS’s presence on its border, complicating issues. We shouldn’t assume that the tip of Assad and his brutal regime shall be on steadiness any higher for us in any respect. We have made that mistake too usually prior to now.

The very least Starmer ought to now do is, like different international locations, shut the borders to Syrians till we are able to perceive what sort of a authorities HTS shall be. After all, they definitely gained’t be wanting weapons to care for Assad’s arsenals, which may find yourself in Palestine igniting much more violence.

This now calls into query Kier Starmers coverage of giving the Chagos Islands away when the Middle East is in such turmoil with an actual chance of the violence intensifying. It isn’t simply Chagos, it is also that the choice has given impetus to others to resume their calls for for his or her territorial rights. I see that in Cyprus there are rising calls for for the tip of the 2 sovereign bases, as Spain now eyes Gibraltar.

The take care of the Chagos Islands was pointless and shall be a deal which we and our allies will remorse for a while to return. Act in haste, repent at leisure.

Whatever now occurs within the Middle East, these occasions present how ill-prepared we’re, making the case for the UK to maneuver to at the least to defence spending to be elevated to 2.6% of GDP is now turning into pressing.