Why peace talks between Ukraine and Russia aren’t so simple as Trump makes out | EUROtoday
US president Donald Trump’s pre-election guarantees to finish the struggle in Ukraine in lower than 24 hours – and earlier than his inauguration – have proved empty.
Keith Kellogg, Mr Trump’s particular envoy for Ukraine and Russia, says the administration’s new purpose is to cease the combating in 100 days.
But particulars on how this shall be achieved stay scant. Mr Trump has repeatedly claimed it is because talking overtly about his plans would undermine his negotiating place. His detractors, nevertheless, say it is a cowl for an absence of plan.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian chief Vladimir Putin, in the meantime, have each expressed a willingness to talk with Mr Trump, although each have their very own calls for if peace is to be achieved.
Below, The Independent seems on the elements at play and why a peace deal might show elusive.
Sanctions
Two days after Mr Trump’s inauguration, the US president gave the primary transient perception into his plans.
“If a deal isn’t reached, I’ll haven’t any different alternative however to place excessive ranges of taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on something being bought by Russia to the United States and different taking part nations,” he posted on his social media platform Truth Social.
“We can do it the easy way or the hard way,” he said, adding: “The easy way is always better.”
A week previously, Bloomberg reported that the incoming administration had begun forming its sanctions strategy on Russia, one that included offering targeted relief to Russian oil producers to incentivise negotiations or expanding sanctions to ramp up pressure.
It is no surprise that a notoriously transactional Mr Trump, who has spoken at length about tariffs, appears focused on leveraging the financial might of the US to end the war.
Whether it will succeed, however, is unclear.
Russia’s economy appears to have soaked up the brunt of Western sanctions over the course of the war, though the long-term implications of putting an economy on a war footing could prove dangerous.
But additional pressure from Mr Trump, off the back of a particularly aggressive sanctions package in Joe Biden’s final days in office, could force Putin to think more carefully.
Territorial concessions
Russia controls a little under 19 per cent of Ukraine, including the Crimean peninsula and parts of the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Ukraine controls a slither of the Russian border region of Kursk.
During his last annual end-of-year conference, Putin called on Ukraine to withdraw from those four Ukrainian regions and for the West to lift all sanctions.
European leaders have consistently dismissed this possibility as rewarding the Russian leader for his land grab but Mr Trump appears more open to the idea.
His vice-president, JD Vance, has spoken about a demilitarised zone patrolled by Western-backed forces. Mr Trump says no US troops will be involved.
The stumbling blocks here are numerous.
The Kremlin has said it does not want Nato forces near Russian troops in occupied Ukraine. Indeed, Putin claimed his invasion of Ukraine was because Nato was trying to get too close to Russia.
Mr Zelensky, meanwhile, may be willing to accept the loss of some territory but it is unlikely he will give up land currently not under Russian control, which includes much of the four regions Putin is claiming. Likewise, Putin will not want Ukrainian troops in Kursk.
In the meantime, Russian forces are creeping forward in eastern Ukraine. Some will question why Putin would stand his troops down when they are advancing, though losses are high.
Security guarantees
![Donald Trump has ruled out the possibility of Ukraine joining Nato while he is in the White House](https://static.independent.co.uk/2025/01/26/23/Trump_18639.jpg)
This is prone to be probably the most contentious concern. Previous agreements to finish the combating in 2014 and 2015, after Russia’s preliminary invasion of Ukraine, have failed, as have many extra makes an attempt.
There is widespread perception that Putin can’t be trusted to abide by a ceasefire. It is feasible he’ll merely use the pause in combating to relaxation his forces earlier than invading once more.
Ukraine believes accession to Nato would deter one other invasion since Article 5 necessitates the defence of an attacked member. But Mr Trump has dominated that out.
Putin not solely opposes any Nato membership for Ukraine however says the nation should turn out to be a impartial state and drastically scale back its army forces. That would successfully strip Ukraine of its sovereign proper to decide on with whom it allies itself. It would additionally make Ukraine a neater goal for future Russian invasions.
Ukraine says the US should supply safety ensures and that European assurances alone aren’t sufficient.
Mr Zelensky has known as on Mr Trump to offer Ukraine extra weapons however within the type of loans. Others have instructed Mr Trump backs the switch of roughly $300bn (£240bn) in frozen Russian property so Ukraine can arm itself.
Russia’s alliance with China, Iran and North Korea
The most vital distinction between Mr Trump’s first and second phrases, as regards to developing a international coverage, is the interconnectedness of countries hostile to the US.
China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are extra aligned than ever. They have helped each other evade sanctions; they’ve backed one another’s wars; they’ve sought to tug different nations away from the purview of the US-led West.
Mr Trump might look to disrupt these alliances to sluggish help for Russia’s struggle, or he might put stress on these allies to cease funding Putin.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/trump-ukraine-russia-peace-talks-putin-zelensky-b2687396.html