Fedea questions the “optimism” of the federal government concerning the pension system after the Airef examination | Economy | EUROtoday

The Foundation of Applied Economics Studies (Fedea) believes that the Government sins of “optimism” in its evaluation on the well being of the pension system. Ángel de la Fuente, govt director of Fedea, has printed on Monday a examine entitled On the appliance of the safeguarding clause of the intergenerational fairness mechanism (MEI); Some methodological doubtsper week after the airf disseminated its first and anticipated examination after the reform of the system. In it, the tax authority signifies that an adjustment shouldn’t be obligatory, however on the identical time alerts that sustainability has worsened with an expense that can rise to three.4 GDP factors as much as 2050, 4 tenths greater than what it calculated three years in the past. De la Fuente says to coincide with the airf within the “well -founded doubts about the financial situation of the pension system” and expresses its objections to “the way in which the Mei closure clause has been applied.” This is the automated adjustment that Brussels demanded to just accept the reform and whose activation relies on the aforementioned airf examination.

This instrument is launched, because it remembers from the supply, “if the average expenditure provided for in public pensions exceeds 15% of GDP and excess extra income above 1.7% of GDP generated by the new income measures, working in all cases with averages on the period 2022-2050 ″. The air test avoids the closing clause, but Fedea puts objections to the way in which the way they have projected The scenarios: “The procedure adopted is incorrect because it allows additional income from transfers from the State not intended for non -contributory benefits, applies an upward correction to GDP projections from the aging report (which the European Commission prepares) from 2024 onwards that it could be excessively optimistic and part of a very debatable sustainability condition that generates a kind of monetary illusion by not taking into account the evolution of the evolution of the evolution system income ”.

Social safety often contrasses this place that different international locations additionally nourish its transfers pension techniques, not simply citation. “The main diagnosis is that additional measures in pensions are not necessary, sustainability today is guaranteed and all the data that could go well have even better, so we look to the future with optimism. We are on the right track, and there are also indicators and data that are a sample of this,” mentioned Minister Elma Saiz after the publication of the Airof report. “Technically and for hairs, the pension system has successfully overcome its first examination, so that the norm does not force additional adjustments at the moment, but that this does not guarantee the system’s sustainability, which shows clear symptoms of growing financial stress,” says the supply.

Fedea, an evaluation heart in whose Board of Trustees are a number of the largest firms in Ibex 35, questions with particular depth “the indiscriminate inclusion of increases in the transfers of the State not intended to finance non -contributory benefits between the additional income attributed to the reform.” The supply considers that “this can distort the sustainability condition because it allows to reduce net expenditure based on accounting for new income that is not really such from the point of view of consolidated public accounts, artificially displacing the deficit of the pension system to the accounts of the General State Administration.” He continues to point that “although Airef has been reluctant to use this accounting makeup mechanism, the three tenths of transfers that have ended up incorporating them to reluctantly are enough to transform the suspense into an approved.” It emphasizes that “the condition of sustainability” is fulfilled for just one tenth, based on the calculations of the tax authority.

Social Security sources, as soon as the Airef report was identified, they mentioned that the estimates it accommodates on any of the gathering measures, corresponding to these of the self -employed or labor market contribution system, have been very prudent. That is, they contemplate that the outcomes of the extra earnings measures of the system can be a lot increased than those who the company has thought of.

“In conclusion, the sustainability evaluation procedure imposed by Decree 100/2025 [el que permite incluir las transferencias en el examen] It is very debatable and not only because of the non -exclusion of transfers, “he adds from the source.” There is no doubt that the real data that is known about the evolution of GDP and expend In the specific way that is proposed, which presents various problems depending on the origin of GDP surprises that it is intended to correct, ”he concludes.