Bercy within the face of uncertainty Trump | EUROtoday

On Apr 12, 2025

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MErcredi April 9, finish of the day. Éric Lombard, the Minister of the Economy, is by automotive, on the way in which to the information of TF1. He is making ready to announce the revision of the expansion forecast for 2025, from 0.9 to 0.7 % after Donald Trump’s announcement of the adoption of further customs duties within the morning. An alert falls. The American president has simply flipped: he suspended these further customs tariffs with different nations, however provides in opposition to China. Kafkaïen!

For Bercy, Donald Trump’s temper modifications complicate the train of forecasts at a time after they show to be essential. After two years of freewheeling slippages, and with the swelling of the curiosity cost, getting into the extreme deficit process at European degree and the concern of degradation (Moody’s should make its verdict this Friday, April 11), the chief now not has the selection: it should present its critical budgetary. Last 12 months, the deficit reached 5.8 % and debt, 113 % of GDP, relegating us among the many unhealthy college students within the euro zone.

An effort of 5 billion

The commerce battle, which ought to decelerate the exercise, clearly complicates Bercy’s activity. Will we have now to make further efforts? If so, how a lot? Or abandon the target of deficit, as Eric Lombard has some time earlier than altering his speeches? The drawback, “is that it is very complicated today to measure this impact: everything will depend on the decisions of Trump, we can review the forecasts down as well as up,” we breathe in Bercy.

The Ministry of the Economy depends on progress of 0.7 %, which stays optimistic. It was the forecast of the Banque de France earlier than Trump’s warning. The French Observatory for Economic Conditions (OFCE) offered a progress forecast of 0.5 % Wednesday, April 9. “It is difficult to assess the impact of this trade war on trust, which is an essential ingredient for the proper functioning of the economy.

Faced with strong uncertainties, households could save more and companies, hesitate to invest, ”explains Isabelle Job-Bazille, director of Economic Studies at Crédit Agricole SA. If hostilities intensified after the break decreed by Donald Trump, progress could possibly be diminished to sorrow.

To uncover

The kangaroo of the day

Answer

Despite all the pieces, France maintains its goal for the second to carry the deficit to five.4 % this 12 months and fewer than 3 % in 2029, “whatever happens”, within the phrases of the Minister answerable for public accounts, Amélie de Montchalin. For this, she introduced an extra expenditure effort of 5 billion euros, which might be detailed within the coming days.

The government additionally advantages from an extra room for maneuver, because the 2024 deficit was in the end lower than anticipated within the finance legislation. But it isn’t time to relaxation on his laurels. In addition to the administration of uncertainty, Bercy should assault the fragile preparation of the 2026 funds. The topic might be on the menu subsequent week with a convention on public funds which can happen on Tuesday, April 15.

https://www.lepoint.fr/economie/droits-de-douane-bercy-face-a-l-incertitude-trump-11-04-2025-2587098_28.php