Could Germany return to Russian fuel imports? – DW – 04/25/2025 | EUROtoday

As the conflict in Ukraine grinds into its fourth yr, the concept that Russia may pump fuel to the European Union through Germany once more will not be as outlandish because it might need been a number of months in the past.

Amid media stories that Russian President Vladimir Putin has supplied to cease his invasion on the present entrance line in discussions with the United States, hypothesis continues over the attainable reintegration of Russian fuel into the European Union’s vitality combine.

Last month, some politicians from Germany’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) welcomed the concept of repairing each pipelines of the broken Nord Stream 1 and the one broken pipeline on Nord Stream 2. The three have been broken after an act of sabotage in September 2022, with one undamaged.

Nord Stream 1 introduced fuel to Germany earlier than the Ukraine conflict started, whereas Nord Stream 2 was completed in September 2021 however by no means really entered service.

US and Russia reportedly eager on Nord Stream deal

Both Russia and the United States are reportedly eager on a deal to get fuel flowing by way of the pipelines once more.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov mentioned lately that discussions with the US have included Nord Stream. Meanwhile, a number of stories say US buyers are interested by shopping for Nord Stream 2 AG — the Swiss-based subsidiary of the Russian state-owned vitality large Gazprom which owns the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

In January, chapter proceedings in opposition to Nord Stream 2 AG have been delayed till May, with a redacted court docket doc displaying that Gazprom argued that the Trump administration may “have significant consequences on the circumstances of Nord Stream 2.”

Chris Weafer, an funding adviser who has labored in Russia for greater than 25 years, informed DW that there are severe discussions going down relating to a US buy of the corporate.

“There are proposals on the table from US buyers that want to buy the infrastructure, where they could act as a cut out between the source of gas, which is Gazprom, and the buyers of gas, which would be German utilities,” he mentioned.

However, Ben Hilgenstock from the Kyiv School of Economics says it’s not the US or Russia’s place to determine what vitality Europe buys.

“Whatever Russia and the United States negotiate with regards to Nord Stream 2 or 1 is entirely meaningless,” he informed DW. “It is Europe’s decision in specific countries, to be fair, whether they want to purchase Russian pipeline gas through Nord Stream 1 and 2 again.”

German enterprise suffers underneath vitality prices

So would Europe need to purchase Russian pipeline fuel once more?

Europe’s diversification away from Russian fuel and oil after the full-scale invasion was the principle issue that led to a surge in vitality prices all through 2022 and 2023. Although prices have come down considerably from these highs, the re-emergence of Russian vitality into the combination would probably push prices down additional.

German corporations such because the chemical large BASF bore the brunt of hovering vitality prices lately. A spokesperson for the corporate informed DW it could not speculate on any attainable offers relating to Russian vitality, however it did emphasize it was not the one issue affecting its enterprise.

“The increased gas price is only one factor affecting BASF’s competitiveness,” the spokesperson mentioned. “Other important reasons are the current weak demand and increasing import volumes.”

Wolfgang Große Entrup, managing director of Germany’s Chemical Industry Association (VCI), informed DW that his members “welcome measures that reduce excessively high energy prices,” however he emphasised the significance of “reliable partners.”

“Supplies via Nord Stream 1 were unilaterally suspended by Russia in August 2022,” he mentioned. “With a major effort, it has been possible to ensure security of supply even without Russian oil and gas. We should not fall back into old, supposedly comfortable, habits and avoid excessive dependence on individual countries in the future.”

However, Hilgenstock cautions that the lure of cheaper vitality will all the time be able to directing the dialogue in some quarters.

“There is this vision out there of cheap Russian gas that can propel us back wherever,” he mentioned. “That’s where the political pressure is coming from.”

A sophisticated route

Yet political opposition to a restoration of provide stays very sturdy in Europe. The EU Commission lately reiterated its place on Nord Stream 2.

“Nord Stream 2 is not a project of common interest, it does not diversify EU’s energy sources,” an EU Commission spokesperson mentioned at a press briefing on March 3.

Project of Common Interest (PCI) standing is given to vitality infrastructure initiatives, permitting them to learn from an accelerated approval course of and extra versatile regulation.

The EU has pledged to stop all Russian fossil fuels by 2027 and the European Commission plans to launch an in depth technique and roadmap on May 6 as to the way it plans to attain this.

In this context, Hilgenstock thinks supporting the restoration of Nord Stream can be “absolutely bizarre and grotesque.”

“I think we would demonstrate that we’re fundamentally not serious about Russian sanctions. Turning around on this, specifically, means we are absolutely not serious about restraining Vladimir Putin’s ability to continue his war in Ukraine and threaten peace and prosperity in Europe. It would be an absurd development,” he mentioned.

Even if some within the German and European political institution have been in favor of restoring one or each Nord Stream pipelines, argued Hilgenstock, there are “multiple technical obstacles.”

The Nord Stream 2 pipeline has by no means been legally licensed by Germany, for one, and Hilgenstock mentioned he does not see the brand new German authorities doing that.

Then there’s the numerous restore work, which Chris Weaver believes may begin comparatively rapidly if the US was in a position to persuade the EU of the deserves of a deal.

“Those discussions are definitely taking place, and they are credible,” he mentioned, including that he expects some Russian fuel going again to Europe, “but probably no more than 50 % of the volume that was sold before the invasion” in February 2022.

However, Hilgenstock believes it’s important the EU makes it clear to the US that the re-opening of the Nord Stream pipelines will not be up for dialogue.

“We just have to say, this is not happening. And whatever bullying you’re attempting, we are not undermining a fundamental element of our policy to constrain Russia,” he mentioned.

Edited by: Uwe Hessler