Why will Macron begin his tour in Asia by Vietnam | EUROtoday

The timid rise in French exports to Vietnam in 2024, at 1.5 billion euros, is partly explained by the delivery of three Airbus A320 NEO to the Low Costjet company, a performance which will not happen again this year while the next devices planned in this aeronautical order will be assembled in Germany. To hope to gain market share in Vietnam, Paris must still ratify the Vietnam – European Union (Evipa) investment protection agreement, signed in 2019 – and could plead in Brussels to remove the “yellow card” which sanctions Vietnamese fishing products.

“The state cannot do everything,” said Benoît de Tréglodé. Since the historic visit of François Mitterrand, the first western head of state to return to Vietnam in 1993, French companies have left themselves, renouncing the conquest of the 100 million Vietnamese consumers. A strategic error that is difficult to catch up. “Of the 20 favorite companies in the Vietnamese, none is French, regrets the researcher. Today, it is no longer only a re -export market. It is time for France to realize it. In the meantime, she has completely missed the mark. »»

The historian and geopolitical analyst is joined in this severe observation by the economist of Inalco Jean-Philippe Églinger. “There was a form of French disappointment on promises that Vietnam had not made,” he described politely. In other words, the old colonial power benefits from no precedence. The only area where France could do well: civilian nuclear, where Vietnam relaunches its program and hopes to put two power stations into service by 2030. An EDF delegation has also accosted in Hanoi in March.

Frigates, radars, satellites

The invasion of Ukraine has opened another window of opportunity in the defense sector. Until then, Russia monopolized 95 % of the military markets, but the grabbing of its industry by the conflict with kyiv forced Vietnamese to turn to new suppliers. “Vietnam wants to decrease its dependence on Russia,” confirms Vietnamese researcher Nguyen Khac Giang, believing that it has already been reduced to 70-80 %. The contenders, Czech Republic, Israel and especially South Korea, jostle on the balcony.

What about France? The commemorations of the 70th anniversary of the fall of Dien Bien Phu, in the spring of 2024, had served the Minister of the French armies, Sébastien Lecornu, to open the way on his return. Passing through Paris in October 2024, President Tô Lâm signed with Emmanuel Macron a “global strategic partnership”, prior to “structuring projects”. KNDS has for a time hoped for a contract for its Caesar cannons-finally delighted by the South Koreans with their belly K9, in early 2025, for more than 240 million euros. The latter, with 250,000 expatriates, oppose fierce competition to France. Besides they play near their bases, they do not deprive themselves of any means to materialize sales, according to observers.

To gain ground, the French, they scour the Hanoi armaments salons. Thalès negotiates defense radars, multiplies small civil satellite contracts, and aims at the Defense satellite market as well as Airbus – which faces a vigorous Israeli competition.

There is room for collaboration with FranceNguyen Khac Giang, researcher

We are still far from big “structuring” contracts, reminiscent of in Indonesia or India. According to the Intelligence Online website, the Vietnamese and Naval Group would have superior in early 2025 in discussions for frigates. “It would be a nice surprise,” feedback Jean-Philippe Églinger, prudent. The relationship would enter a brand new period. “A familiar file warns:” South Korea is best positioned than us. »»

To uncover



The kangaroo of the day

Vietnamese analyst Nguyen Khac Giang is extra optimistic: “Until then, Vietnam has solely been supplied in maritime capability with Russia, however there may be room for collaboration with France. This will rely upon two issues: the potential of technological switch, as a result of Vietnam needs to supply regionally; and the compatibility of the brand new armament platform with previous Soviet methods. If the French producer finds a manner of integrating them with out a hitch, it will give it a lever to acquire the contract. Finally, there may be in fact the query of prices. »»

Even if China encourages its neighbor to keep away from offering an ally too near Washington reminiscent of South Korea, the value stays the primary determinant in a protection funds which mustn’t exceed $ 10 billion per 12 months by 2029. Depending on intelligence on-line all the time, a compromise may very well be discovered by shopping for a French design, a a lot cheaper contract than the supply of Vietnamese individuals Locally naval development capacities with their arsenals, companions amongst others from Dutch Damen.