China’s position in Russia’s financial survival – DW – 05/08/2025 | EUROtoday

Chinese President Xi Jinping is in Moscow this week for Russia’s Victory Day Parade, the place his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, unleashed a show of navy would possibly to assist cement ties with Beijing.

The parade, a celebration of the eightieth anniversary of the Soviet conquer Nazi Germany in World War II, aimed to showcase Russia’s resilience and ambition on the worldwide stage.

At the Kremlin shortly after, Xi declared that China stands shoulder-to-shoulder with Moscow in opposition to “hegemonic bullying,” a pointed jab at US President Donald Trump’s tariff onslaught and crippling sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

“The mutual trust between China and Russia grows ever deeper, with pragmatic cooperation forging an unbreakable bond,” Xi mentioned.

Björn Alexander Düben, an professional in Russia-China relations at China’s Jilin University, thinks Xi’s go to has a “highly symbolic element,” noting that, aside from Brazil’s President Lula da Silva, Xi was the one main world chief to attend the parade.

Düben famous a “personal rapport” between the 2 leaders and described how Xi “devotes more time to his interaction with Putin than practically any other international leader.”

Russia wants China greater than ever

As Western sanctions choke Russia’s financial system over the Ukraine battle, Moscow more and more counts on Beijing as a lifeline for power and uncooked materials exports.

China has risen to turn into Russia’s prime financial accomplice, with bilateral commerce hovering to $244 billion (€216 billion) final yr. In February 2022, the 2 international locations signed a “no limits” financial, navy, and diplomatic partnership to counter Western affect.

Since the battle’s onset, Russia’s exports to China have skyrocketed by 63% to $129.3 billion, whereas Chinese imports have helped bolster Moscow’s wartime financial system, binding the 2 nations nearer than ever.

Instead of buckling below the pressure of the battle, Sino-Russian ties have surged to new heights. While sustaining neutrality within the battle, Beijing struck a shrewd cope with the Kremlin, snapping up discounted Russian oil and gasoline, as European nations reduce their reliance. Russia is now China’s prime supply of crude oil imports, supplying round a fifth of imports.

The two powers have additionally tightened navy bonds, ramping up joint battle video games and sharing cutting-edge protection applied sciences.

While Russia’s financial system has confirmed extra resilient to Western sanctions than most consultants had anticipated, with out China’s financial assist, Moscow could be in a “deep mess,” Düben Told DW.

China’s assist props up battle effort

As nicely because the expanded power commerce, Düben mentioned China has given Russia entry to manufactured items and applied sciences that it can’t produce and that Western states now not export to Russia.

The Yilin University affiliate professor mentioned that with out China’s dual-use items (civilian and navy), “Russia’s armed forces would probably not be able to continue their military campaign against Ukraine.”

One of Trump’s goals with such excessive tariffs on Chinese imports was to field Beijing right into a nook in opposition to Washington and the remainder of the world. Undeterred, China has fought again, cautioning nations speeding to ink commerce offers with the US in opposition to undermining Chinese pursuits. In its dealings with Washington, Beijing has remained defiant however calculated.

[In responding to Trump] “China is positioning itself as a steady counterweight to an erratic, protectionist US, showcasing its alliance with Moscow as a bedrock of global stability,” mentioned Düben.

US secondary sanctions impede commerce

With US tariffs on China hovering to unprecedented highs and American markets slamming shut for Chinese exporters, they might search to discover new alternatives in Russia’s market, although a lot smaller than the US.

But they will have to beat US secondary sanctions imposed on Moscow to cease entities in third international locations exporting to Russia, which made many Chinese banks hesitant about working with their Russian counterparts.

“These secondary sanctions have proven a major irritant in Sino-Russian economic interaction and a substantial obstacle in further expanding trade,” mentioned Düben. “But as trade relations with the US become less attractive for China, Chinese banks and other businesses might be more inclined to ignore US sanctions threats in their dealings with Russian businesses.”

Earlier this yr, the secondary sanctions briefly disrupted Russia’s oil exports to China, when the US Treasury focused 183 vessels, two of Russia’s main oil producers and associated corporations with sanctions. The crackdown triggered an 18% drop in Russia’s crude exports to China in February. However, due to a Chinese workaround involving various vessels and cost techniques, Russia’s shadow fleet has since sustained the commerce.

While Düben notes that though a give attention to Russia could additional increase Sino-Russian commerce, he expects that progress to “remain modest” in comparison with China’s broader world commerce.

Siberia 2 pipeline at ‘energetic stage’

A centerpiece of the Putin-Xi talks in the course of the Chinese president’s go to is the proposed Power of Siberia 2 gasoline pipeline, set to channel 50 billion cubic meters of Russian gasoline yearly from Yamal in northwest Siberia to China by way of Mongolia.

Moscow has pursued Beijing relentlessly for years to finalize the venture, however the pipeline’s route stays unresolved underscoring China’s higher hand. Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilyov revealed Thursday that negotiations are at an “active stage,” although a deal is unlikely to be sealed throughout Xi’s go to.

This lopsided dynamic lays naked Russia’s waning leverage in a Beijing-led partnership, cementing China’s dominance as Moscow aligns with its world ambitions.

“Given Russia’s unprecedented dependence on China, Moscow is increasingly tied to Beijing’s interests … and is now increasingly a supplicant,” Düben mentioned.

Edited by: Rob Mudge