Will France lastly keep at bay destiny at Eurovision 2025? | EUROtoday

On May 18, 2025

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CHaque yr is identical chorus for the French delegation to Eurovision: that of defeat. Since 1977 and Marie Myriam’s victory, no candidate has managed to convey the trophy again to France. The singer Louane, who will current her title “Maman” throughout the remaining of the competitors this Saturday, May 17 in Basel, in Switzerland, however believes in her probabilities for this 69^e version. Just like bookmakers, who classify the 28 -year -old artist third of their forecasts, behind Sweden and Austria.

“It is not stupid to think that France can win this year,” approves Oranie Abbes, teacher-researcher on the University of Lorraine, who devoted her thesis to Eurovision. Everything was finished and thought to get the trophy. This has not at all times been the case. Explanations.

Why has the trophy has escaped France since 1977?

Since the creation of the competitors in 1956, France, which is one in all its largest contributors with Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom, has solely received it 5 instances … The remainder of the time, it has usually been relegated to the underside of the rating. Everyone goes there from their verse – typically in dangerous religion – to clarify these repeated failures: the artists could be little proficient and little recognized, the sick -calibrated songs, the system of unfavorable votes …

Others even argue that these setbacks could be volunteer: the group of the competitors, which fell to the profitable nation of the earlier yr, could be very costly. It would due to this fact be higher to lose to keep away from expenditure. Oranie Abbes rapidly sweeps this argument: “To say that we never wanted to win for this reason is perhaps a way of keeping face,” she smiles. ” Because Eurovision is a sacred showcase, which generates economic benefits for the host country… ” Read too Eurovision 2025: The images of the rehearsal of Louane unveiledNo doubt it is necessary to seek elsewhere the causes of French misfortune, and in particular in the disenchantment of the hexagonal public for a competition often deemed to be angry. Not enough to encourage France Télévisions, which broadcasts the event and chooses the national representative, to invest: “For a very long time, she dragged Eurovision like a ball, rewind Oranie Abbes. Working on it was thought of an thankless process. However, when you do not take issues critically, you may’t seduce European voters … “

However, lately, the French candidates got away with it honorably, hoisting themselves in the first part of the painting. In 2021, Barbara Pravi even finished second, while Slimane won a beautiful fourth place last year. But what should we go back to?

The perception of the competition has changed

For Oranie Abbes, the turning point operated in 2015: “That year was very complicated for France, represented by Lisa Angell (penultimate with 4 points). Her performance, who really seemed to date from another era, remained like a little trauma … “The following yr, the French delegation due to this fact rolls up the sleeves to revive her coat of arms:” She makes the effort to look for a more modern candidate with Amir, known to have participated in The Voice… ”

Good pick: the singer ends in sixth place … The best French performance for almost 15 years! At the same time, the competition itself begins its change under the impetus of the Swedes, who hold the victory record and welcome it in 2016: “They positioned the bar very excessive to make it appear to be American musical reveals and their very own nationwide choice, the Melody Festival. »»

Read too Why Louane might properly win the Eurovision competitorsResult ? The media and the French public are as soon as once more affected from Eurovision. France Télévisions too, which “sees it as a card to play,” stated the researcher. “From that moment, the broadcaster decides to invest the competition as much as possible, but also the Eurovision brand in itself …” This interprets amongst different issues into an extra work on the selection of artists: “Like Slimane, Louane is a very popular personality, likely to create a national communion,” she continues. She is an efficient singer, properly in her time. »»

Another technique developed by the delegation: promotion in France and internationally. After a revelation of his title with nice fanfare on the Stade de France throughout the closing of the Six Nations Tournament, Louane undertook a small tour in Europe to make herself recognized. Not sufficient, nevertheless, to win. Winning Eurovision includes that it additionally appears to be like and the best way!

“Mom” has the potential to win

According to the researcher, “victory depends on many combined elements”. The first of them: the tune. Statistically, the titles sung in English have probably the most probability of profitable. With her ballad in French, would Louane would have shot himself within the foot? “If English is predominant in the competition, we are witnessing today a return in force of national languages, tempers Oranie Abbes. This year, there are even five songs with words in French. Among them, the Israeli and Dutch pieces, both in the top 5 forecasts…

The other asset of the song is its title Momeasily understandable by all. But what could make the difference are her last seconds, where we hear Esmée’s voice, Louane’s little girl: “It brings an extra diploma of emotion to this already very touching tune. The artist certainly devoted it to her late mom, who dreamed of seeing her take part within the competitors …
Read too Who is Nemo, the large winner of Eurovision? Second planet to align to win: scenography. It is Fredrik Rydman who might be accountable for highlighting the efficiency of the singer. A grasp within the matter: the creative director signed the staging of Nemo, winner final yr. As the researcher remarks, “the French delegation has really put all the odds on her side”. But all the pieces doesn’t rely upon her …

The legal guidelines of voting … and probability!

The order of passage, decided by drawing after which choice of the organizers, influences the consequence. Different time zones drive, it’s higher to sing within the second a part of the night to be seen by as many individuals as potential, and due to this fact appeal to votes.

Last components of the equation: the geopolitical context and voting reflexes. Since her invasion by Russia in 2022, Ukraine has thus acquired huge assist from the European public: that yr, she received an amazing victory and completed sixth in 2023 and third in 2024. The Israeli-Palestinian battle additionally weighs on the competitors.

If the participation of the Hebrew State has been strongly disputed for 2 years by part of the general public, this didn’t stop Eden Golan, its consultant in 2024, from ending fifth thanks particularly to the votes of Western Europe: “The Israeli diaspora is important. The power of the vote in favor of Israel is undeniable, ”confirms Oranie Abbes.

Read too Eurovision: When geopolitical rhymes with music
To uncover

The kangaroo of the day

Answer

Beyond the information, there are centuries-old friendships. Because at Eurovision, some extra readily give factors … to their neighbors. This is the case for members of the Scandinavian, Balkan blocks and the states of the previous USSR. But in Western Europe, the votes are extra scattered: “In France, we’re not essentially supported by our border buddies, concedes the researcher. This dynamic of blocks can, in fact, tip the votes, however it’s not systematic. »»

And to proceed, optimistic: “The approach the European public will obtain the tune might be decisive. But this yr, Louane has each probability. She can win! »»

https://www.lepoint.fr/culture/louane-peut-l-emporter-la-france-va-t-elle-enfin-conjurer-le-sort-a-l-eurovision-2025–16-05-2025-2589733_3.php