Revision upwards of the projections of the deficit anticipated in 2070 | EUROtoday

The pension orientation council (Cor) divided by two its estimate of the deficit of the pension system for 2030, at 0.2 % of the GDP, however famous that for 2070, to 1.4 % of the GDP, in keeping with its annual report, consulted on Friday June 6 by the company France-Presse (AFP).

In 2024, the COR, hooked up to Matignon however working independently, offered a deficit of 0.4 % of GDP in 2030, which it then estimated at 0.8 % of GDP in 2070. In 2024, the steadiness of the pension system (fundamental regimes and extra regimes) had a deficit of 1.7 billion euros (0.1 % of GDP). A deficit of 0.2 % GDP in 2030 would signify 6.6 billion euros.

Even if “Expenses increased little (13.9 % of GDP in 2024, 14.2 % in 2070), resources decrease even more (13.9 % of GDP in 2024, 12.8 % in 2070)”establishes the horn on this doc, which is to be formally printed subsequent week.

Four mobilizable levers

In 2024, retirement bills represented 407 billion euros. Among the international locations adopted by the COR, “France is the second country (after Italy) where the share of public retirement expenses in GDP is the highest”.

As the social companions focus on the means to rebalance the system by 2030, the COR stresses that “The mobilizable levers (…) are not equivalent from the point of view their macroeconomic effects ”.

The horn distinguishes four: “Moderation of the rise in internet pensions of levies, enhance in retirement contributions from staff, enhance in pension contributions from employers and retirement age that enables a rise in employment charges”.

For the horn, the first three tracks are “Recessive”. The first two “Reduce internet revenue and subsequently family demand, which weakens GDP”. The third option “Increases the price of labor, which reduces funding and employment and subsequently additionally GDP”. The recessive effect of these three ways corresponds to “A discount in tax and social revenues from public administrations” and strengthens “The difficulties in finance public spending apart from pensions, like the varsity, [de] Health, [de] safety, and so on. »»in keeping with the horn.

Conversely, in his eyes, a decline in retirement age corresponds “To an enrichment of the country (increase in GDP per capita)”. A proposal which dangers bristling the unions, which demand a decreasing of the present beginning age, which the very contested reform of 2023 will step by step enhance to 64 years.