The Potential Fallout Of Trump And Musk’s Breakup | EUROtoday

Watching oligarch Elon Musk and President Donald Trump break up in actual time on Thursday afternoon, with each males utilizing their most well-liked mediums ― Musk on the social media website he owns, Trump whereas speaking to tv cameras ― was deeply satisfying for Democrats who’ve come to detest each males. Popcorn emojis are plentiful.

Emotional satisfaction, nonetheless, could be all Democrats get out of the divorce between Trump and his largest monetary supporter, which will get nastier by the minute. The duo’s massive, not-so-beautiful breakup is unlikely to considerably hurt Trump politically, or meaningfully decelerate congressional Republicans’ plodding march towards passing the tax-cutting, Medicaid-slashing, deficit-exploding laws Musk labeled an “abomination” final week.

Let’s begin with a fundamental reality: Musk was very unpopular, and was not doing a lot to assist Trump politically. His favorability stood at simply 40%, with 54% of Americans holding an unfavorable opinion, notably worse than Trump’s 46% job approval. GOP operatives have lengthy been skeptical the quarter-billion {dollars} Musk spent on the 2024 election, and which Musk claimed on Thursday have been the precise purpose Trump received, truly did a lot to assist Republicans reclaim the White House. (In reality, Republicans have been able to scapegoat Musk if Trump misplaced.)

“Musk did damage to Trump by doing politically unpopular things and by drawing attention off of Trump and making it so when voters think about Trump, they’re going to think about Elon,” mentioned Evan Roth Smith, a Democratic pollster at Slingshot Strategies who studied the methods Musk created vulnerabilities for Trump. “The first few months of an administration can really define how voters feel about it, and Musk was so closely associated with the first weeks and months of this administration.”

So breaking apart with Musk is a chance for Trump to solid off a poisonous political appendage recognized for unpopular insurance policies like attacking Social Security and enacting indiscriminate federal job cuts. The amputation is unlikely to completely work, however he might make it so each he and different GOP leaders aren’t held chargeable for Musk’s unpopular positions sooner or later.

“Trump is looking for a really loud breakup,” Roth Smith predicted. “He’s hoping voters will draw some distance between him and Elon. Trump is going to be really dramatic about this.”

At the identical time, whereas Musk’s critiques of the invoice as a budget-buster ― it will add practically $3 trillion to the debt over the following decade, in accordance with the Congressional Budget Office ― might give a rhetorical enhance to members looking for deeper cuts, like Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Mike Lee (R-Utah), Republicans appeared principally inclined to shrug off his critiques.

“Oh, I don’t care. He’s got an opinion,” Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Ark.), a person typically keen to upset Republican leaders, mentioned of Musk earlier this week.

Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) equally mentioned lawmakers are reacting to Musk’s broadsides towards the laws with shrugs and eye rolls. “He’s an entertaining fellow, I just don’t base my policy positions on his tweets,” he advised HuffPost.

Musk doesn’t completely lack leverage over House and Senate Republicans. On the social media website he owns, he reminded them Trump’s presidency will finish in a brief 3 1/2 years, whereas noting he could be round for an additional 40 (Musk is 53). He’s additionally demonstrated a willingness to spend cash on politics, even when the effectiveness of that cash ― each within the basic election and in a Wisconsin Supreme Court race earlier this yr ― is up within the air.

But longtime GOP aides mentioned a contest between Trump and Musk for the hearts and minds of congressional Republicans was no contest in any respect.

“Let there be no doubt who congressional Rs are going to side with in this skirmish. We don’t need to play the ‘will Elon sink the bill?’ game,” Brendan Buck, a former aide to House Speakers John Boehner and Paul Ryan, wrote on social media.

For all of the social media bombast and meme-driven gallows humor of the Musk-Trump cut up, the story of the South African-born billionaire’s obvious ouster is far much less novel than it may appear.

“I think Elon Musk is learning a lesson that many people who enter politics as relative novices sometimes take a while to learn,” Roth Smith mentioned. “Inertia is a powerful force in American politics, and people who seek to upend the normal state of affairs in American politics often find they are the ones who are upended after, as President Trump put it, patience is worn thin.”

Igor Bobic and Arthur Delaney contributed reporting.