Israel and Iran, 5 questions and solutions to know the assault and its situations | EUROtoday

The Israeli protection forces additionally declare the killing of consultants concerned within the nuclear program reminiscent of Ali Bakouei Karimi, Mansour Asgari and Saeed Barji. A widespread interpretation is that Israel has struck to extend the diplomatic urgent on Tehran within the coronary heart of negotiations with the United States, tilting them with a extra favorable settlement in Washington.

And now what can occur?

The most evident worry is that of a brand new regional escalation, accelerating and aggravating the one already underway since October 2023. The choices on Israel and Iran’s desk are – comparatively – extra circumstantial. According to an evaluation printed by Paul Salem, Senior Fellow of the Middle East Institute, Israel can orient himself on an offensive interruption to reopen diplomatic areas or insist on the false line of the actions in opposition to Hezbollah in Lebanon to “further degrade the Iranian nuclear program and weaken his leadership and decision -making apparatus”. Always in accordance with Salem, the Iranian margins are extra restricted. Tehran was unable to reply instantly to the offensive, however doesn’t appear projected in the direction of a large scale conflict “that cannot win”.

The “military power imbalance with Israel and the United States is clear – writes Salem. While Iran can inflict damage, the defenses of Israel and its partners are able to neutralize most of the attacks ». On the one hand, “hitting the US items would set off an brisk American response, a consequence that Tehran tries to keep away from”. On the other, “attacking goals within the Gulf would take away the principle regional companions, undermining the lengthy -term place of Iran”.

And what role are the United States playing?

The Washington line is quite ondivaga. Trump had always tried, officially, to dissuade Netanyahu from an offensive against Iran in the heart of the negotiations on the nuclear deal with Washington. The secretary of state Marco Rubio also formally condemned the attacks on Iran as “unilateral”, excluding his involvement. At the same time, Washington has witnessed Israel in the defensive phase and now Trump is riding on the political pressure on Iran for the achievement of an agreement “earlier than nothing stays”.

What are the economic and financial consequences?

The markets have only been able to react with nervousness, even if the losses recorded so far seem contained and mainly concern the fears of repercussions on energy prices. The most feared scenario is that of repercussions similar to those already suffered with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, even if the scenario of a Middle Eastern war in itself does not produce particular amounts. Mark Dowding, Chief Investment Officer of Bluebay Fixed Income, said that the impacts could be contained in the absence of a “dramatic” escalation of Iran and concentrated above all on the price of crude oil. “However, in a second of sure complacency of the market – he stated, talked about by the Axios head – the Middle East and the geopolitics extra usually symbolize a supply of threat that we can’t ignore”.