The French economic system caught in stagnation, in accordance with INSEE | EUROtoday

A consumption that doesn’t restart, a financial savings price all the time on the high, investments that wrestle to go away and a overseas commerce returned to crimson: all engines when stopped, the French economic system mustn’t exceed 0.6 % development in 2025, in accordance with the brand new financial report of the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), revealed on Wednesday, June 18.

A disappointment little doubt for Bercy, who had lowered his development forecast to 0.7 % for the 12 months final April, withdrawn from 0.2 factors in comparison with 0.9 % nonetheless hoped for in January. Despite the brand new uncertainties that appeared With the struggle between Israel and Iran, Amélie de Montchalin, Minister of Public Accounts, mentioned Tuesday, June 17, earlier than the Senate finance committee: “Our development forecast stays achievable. »»

INSEE is subsequently much less optimistic than the federal government. Low constructive within the first quarter (0.1 %), development ought to cap at 0.2 % in every of the next three quarters. The economic system doesn’t profit from the slight enchancment within the local weather noticed within the euro zone, partly linked to the drop in rates of interest. As a lot as “Budget consolidation weighs on activity”underlines Dorian Roucher, head of the division of the financial scenario at INSEE. The consumption of administrations thus mirrored within the first quarter of 2025 in comparison with 2024 (0.2 %, as an alternative of 0.4 %). Above all: the chief, which should obtain the goal of lowering the general public deficit to five.4 % of the gross home product in 2025, after 5.8 % in 2024, seeks to scale back public spending by 40 billion euros.

A phenomenon of “suprépargne”

Another handicap: France has not benefited, in contrast to the United Kingdom, Germany or Italy, from the “commercial rush”, specifically, the eagerness of corporations to represent shares earlier than the institution of customs duties decreed by US President Donald Trump in early April. A phenomenon that led to 1.7 % of world commerce within the first quarter. The tricolor overseas commerce, it attire after two good years. Despite the supply by the Atlantic websites of the spectacular of the liner World-America In the Swiss firm MSC, in March, exports are down 1.8 % over the primary three months of the 12 months. Over the 2025, overseas commerce ought to reduce French development by 0.7 factors.

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