Why some key Tehran allies have stayed out of the Israel-Iran battle | EUROtoday

Hezbollah has lengthy been thought of Iran’s first line of protection in case of a battle with Israel. But since Israel launched its large barrage in opposition to Iran, triggering the continuing Israel-Iran battle, the Lebanese militant group has stayed out of the fray — even after the U.S. entered the battle Sunday with strikes on Iranian nuclear websites.

A community of highly effective Iran-backed militias in Iraq has additionally remained principally quiet.

Domestic political considerations, in addition to powerful losses suffered in practically two years of regional conflicts and upheavals, seem to have led these Iran allies to take a again seat within the newest spherical convulsing the area.

“Despite all the restraining factors, wild cards remain,” mentioned Tamer Badawi, an affiliate fellow with the Germany-based assume tank Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient.

That’s very true after the U.S. stepped in with strikes on three nuclear services in Iran.

The ‘Axis of Resistance’

Hezbollah was shaped with Iranian help within the early Eighties as a guerilla drive preventing in opposition to Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon on the time.

The militant group helped push Israel out of Lebanon and constructed its arsenal over the following many years, changing into a strong regional drive and the centerpiece of a cluster of Iranian-backed factions and governments referred to as the “ Axis of Resistance.”

The allies additionally embrace Iraqi Shiite militias and Yemen’s Houthi rebels, in addition to the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

At one level, Hezbollah was believed to have some 150,000 rockets and missiles, and the group’s former chief, Hassan Nasrallah as soon as boasted of getting 100,000 fighters.

Seeking to assist its ally Hamas within the aftermath of the Palestinian militants’ Oct. 7, 2023 assault on southern Israel and Israel’s offensive in Gaza, Hezbollah started launching rockets throughout the border.

That drew Israeli airstrikes and shelling, and the exchanges escalated into full-scale battle final September. Israel inflicted heavy injury on Hezbollah, killing Nasrallah and different prime leaders and destroying a lot of its arsenal, earlier than a U.S.-negotiated ceasefire halted that battle final November. Israel continues to occupy components of southern Lebanon and to hold out near-daily airstrikes.

For their half, the Iraqi militias often struck bases housing U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria, whereas Yemen’s Houthis fired at vessels within the Red Sea, an important international commerce route, and commenced focusing on Israel.

Keeping an ambiguous stance

Hezbollah has condemned Israel’s assaults however didn’t instantly touch upon the U.S. strikes on Iran. Just days earlier than the U.S. assault, Hezbollah chief Naim Kassem mentioned in an announcement that the group “will act as we deem appropriate in the face of this brutal Israeli-American aggression.”

Lebanese authorities officers have pressed the group to remain out of the battle, saying that Lebanon can not deal with one other damaging battle, and U.S. envoy Tom Barrack, who visited Lebanon final week, mentioned it will be a “very bad decision” for Hezbollah to become involved.

Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah militia — a separate group from Hezbollah — had mentioned previous to the U.S. assault that it’ll immediately goal U.S. pursuits and bases unfold all through the area if Washington will get concerned. The group has additionally remained silent since Sunday’s strikes.

The Houthis final month reached an settlement with Washington to cease assaults on U.S. vessels within the Red Sea in alternate for the U.S. halting its strikes on Yemen, however the group threatened to renew its assaults if Washington entered the Iran-Israel battle.

In an announcement on Sunday, the Houthis’ political bureau described the U.S. assault on Iran as a “grave escalation that poses a direct risk to regional and worldwide safety and peace.” The Houthis did not immediately launch strikes.

Reasons to stay on the sidelines

Hezbollah was weakened by last year’s fighting and after losing a major supply route for Iranian weapons with the fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad, a key ally, in a lightning rebel offensive in December.

“Hezbollah has been degraded on the strategic level while cut off from supply chains in Syria,” said Andreas Krieg, a military analyst and associate professor at King’s College London.

Still, Qassem Qassir, a Lebanese analyst close to Hezbollah, said a role for the militant group in the Israel-Iran conflict should not be ruled out.

“The battle is still in its early stages,” he mentioned. “Even Iran hasn’t bombed American bases (in response to the U.S. strikes), but rather bombed Israel.”

He said that both the Houthis and the Iraqi militias “lack the strategic deep strike functionality in opposition to Israel that Hezbollah as soon as had.”

Renad Mansour, a senior research fellow at the Chatham House think tank in London, said Iraq’s Iran-allied militias have all along tried to avoid pulling their country into a major conflict.

Unlike Hezbollah, whose military wing has operated as a non-state actor in Lebanon — although its political wing is part of the government — the main Iraqi militias are members of a coalition of groups that are officially part of the state defense forces.

“Things in Iraq are good for them right now, they’re connected to the state — they’re benefitting politically, economically,” Mansour said. “And also they’ve seen what’s happened to Iran, to Hezbollah and they’re concerned that Israel will turn on them as well.”

Badawi said that for now, the armed groups may be lying low because “Iran likely wants these groups to stay intact and operational.”

“But if Iran suffers insurmountable losses or if the Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) is assassinated, those could act as triggers,” he mentioned.