“The Bayrou budget, courageous and original by certain aspects, is a good surprise, which could only be ephemeral” | EUROtoday

ONo knew that, caught between the financial turpitudes and the political contradictions of a nationwide meeting with out actual majority, the Prime Minister, François Bayrou, was not going to revolutionize the funds. The greatest he may do was to keep away from lasting errors. Mission (nearly) completed: the Bayrou funds, offered to the undertaking state this Tuesday, July 15, is an effective shock, which may definitely be solely ephemeral.

The dramatization of the debt is a bit moved. Admittedly, public debt is extreme and probably harmful, however it’s a lengthy -term topic: it’s the results of a long time throughout which all of the politicians, or nearly, have posted a sovereign contempt on the query, and it’ll additionally take years to prepare reflux. With a horizon restricted to 2027, François Bayrou can’t do a lot.

The main goal of the dramatization he has staged is probably to calm the European Commission and the monetary markets. The important factor is, for him, to stabilize the deficit (5.4 % of the gross home product [PIB] in 2025 to 4.6 % in 2026). This could be the case after the discussions that may decide to keep away from censorship: the Prime Minister has given himself a small room for maneuver.

The white yr, readable and efficient concept

The coronary heart of the technique is to cut back public expenditure and to not enhance taxation. It is important and new in France. Previous governments promised financial savings in hundreds of thousands of euros, largely anecdotal sums. We are speaking about 43.8 billion immediately, or 1.3 % of GDP: it’s lastly beginning to appear like a major amount.

The white yr (the freezing of public spending, with out taking into consideration inflation) is the nice concept. It’s readable, and it is efficient. It can also be a comparatively stable dike within the face of the a whole lot of exceptions that each one the standard stress teams would require. And non-indexation on inflation of social advantages is comparatively painless at a time when inflation has returned to only over 1 %.

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