Donald Trump’s Redistricting War Is Quickly Backfiring | EUROtoday

When President Donald Trump launched his redistricting struggle to be able to insulate House Republicans’ majority forward of a probably bruising midterm election, it might have seemed like a canny partisan transfer by a political determine recognized for violating all norms.

But it’s not wanting like such an awesome concept proper now. After shifting 5 Democratic-held seats in Texas into the GOP column, Trump’s redistricting marketing campaign has suffered setback after setback as Democrats responded in sort, and a few Republican-led states refused Trump’s stress marketing campaign.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, acquired voters to approve a poll initiative that counters Texas’ gerrymander by including 5 Democratic-leaning seats within the state. Efforts to stress GOP legislatures to redraw maps in states like Indiana and Kansas ran aground whereas Virginia Democrats introduced their very own plan to redraw their state’s map ― probably flipping as much as 4 seats from the GOP. Then a state court docket in Utah required the state to attract one secure Democratic seat. And on Tuesday, a federal court docket struck down Texas’ new map as a racial gerrymander.

That resolution may very well be stayed or reversed by the Supreme Court, as Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, mentioned the state will enchantment. But if it isn’t, Trump’s redistricting struggle could have been an enormous miscalculation. Those 5 seats will probably be taken off the board whereas California could have added 5 Democratic seats ― as long as its map survives the same authorized problem introduced by Republicans. With the one seat gained in Utah and one other potential two to 4 added in Virginia, Democrats could have added no less than eight seats in comparison with the 4 seats altered by Republicans in Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio.

“Many people felt that Democrats had a weak hand going into this because they didn’t control many states,” mentioned Michael Li, an skilled on redistricting legislation on the Brennan Center for Justice, a progressive nonprofit. “But they have masterfully played their hand.”

It may get even worse. Missouri Democrats have gathered sufficient signatures to place an initiative earlier than voters that might repeal the brand new map permitted by the GOP-run legislature that eradicated one Democratic-held seat. If the initiative survives authorized challenges and will get onto the poll, it will pressure the state to make use of its outdated map for the 2026 election. That would take one other seat off the board for Republicans.

All of the vitality for redistricting now lies on the Democratic aspect. California voters approving Newsom’s Proposition 50 by a vote of 64-35 exhibits broad help for countering Trump’s redistricting push. So does Democrats’ sweep of races in Virginia after Democrats introduced their bid to redraw the state’s map.

“The biggest note coming out of the election is to be very clear-eyed about the reality that voters are enthused about this,” mentioned John Bisignano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, a Democratic Party-aligned group.

Republicans, in the meantime, are in retreat. Indiana Republicans ended a particular session on redistricting referred to as at Trump’s behest by Gov. Mike Braun, a Republican, with out taking motion to redraw two Democratic-held seats on Tuesday.

The solely hope now for Republicans is in Florida, the place GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis is pushing the GOP-controlled legislature to redraw the state’s maps. But this can be difficult by the result of the Nov. 4 elections that noticed Democrats romp to victory throughout the nation.

Democrats’ robust place heading into the 2026 midterms makes it much less appetizing for Republicans to redraw districts. To achieve this, they would wish to maneuver Democratic voters out of the present districts into GOP-held seats. By diluting the Democratic vote on this manner, Republicans may wind up weakening their place in their very own presently secure seats throughout an election the place Democrats look more likely to have a large benefit.

“If I’m, say, an Indiana Republican and I get a bunch of people from D.C. telling me we know exactly what’s going to happen in the election and you need to pass these maps cause we know what they’re going to look like, I wouldn’t believe that shit,” Bisignano mentioned.

That additionally holds if the Supreme Court does keep the district court docket opinion placing down Texas’ map. That map was enacted on the assumption that voting tendencies from 2024, the place Latino voters swung exhausting to Republicans, would proceed in 2026 and past.

The outcomes from the Nov. 4 elections in New Jersey and Virginia, nevertheless, present these tendencies reversing with Latino voters swinging exhausting again to the Democratic column. Polls now present Trump and Republicans closely underwater amongst Latino voters with many regretting their vote for him in 2024.

If Republican positive aspects amongst Latinos revert to pre-2024 ranges, or additional again to 2016 ranges, the Texas map would doubtless not internet the total 5 seats Trump hoped to safe.

“They made a big bet that the past was prologue,” Li mentioned. “But if it turns out that the past was just the past and not the future, then they may have made a very bad bet.”