Adenauer Foundation: The Left benefited from the Union’s coordination with the AfD | EUROtoday

If not two, however three events had failed simply wanting the 5 % hurdle, the Union and Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) may presently have a number of fewer issues. Without the Left within the Bundestag, there wouldn’t solely have been a mathematical majority for black-red, but in addition for black-green. The Union may maybe have achieved extra within the coalition negotiations and thus prevented some disputes in the long run, for instance with reference to pensions.

The Union remains to be involved with the query of whether or not Merz made a mistake within the heated election marketing campaign section in the beginning of the 12 months. Just a few weeks earlier than election day on February twenty third, the then opposition chief needed to implement asylum tightening in votes and accepted majorities with the AfD, in a single case such a majority was achieved. Nationwide protests adopted.

The Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder, whose CSU supported the choice of the candidate for chancellor Merz on the time, later described the process as a mistake within the ARD program “Caren Miosga”. “I think so,” he mentioned in response to a query, “because it mobilized the left side a lot and divided our own side a lot. Many citizens weren’t sure whether that was right.”

He himself, mentioned Söder, acknowledged this error instantly after the movement for a decision – the Union’s five-point plan for a stricter migration coverage – discovered a majority on the finish of January due to the votes of the AfD. “I remember after the first vote, when the managing director of the AfD went back to the Bundestag, really snarling and salivating, and talked about a new era, then at the latest it was clear to everyone that they might have given the AfD a chance that they didn’t want to give,” mentioned Söder on Sunday night.

“The decision at that time was a decision made by the candidate for chancellor, and we all supported it,” mentioned the CSU chairman, whose get together fears beneficial properties for the AfD within the native elections in Bavaria in 2026. “It was a key decision – a candidate is always right in an election campaign.”

This corresponds to a survey evaluation by the FAZ from the start of February, which got here to the conclusion that the Left, which had beforehand been thought lifeless, might have benefited from the migration debate in these days: After Merz introduced the migration functions, the Left immediately climbed to 5 % or extra – and obtained 8.8 % on election day.

The writer of the KAS research, Dominik Hirndorf, says: “The study cannot answer whether the Left only made it into the Bundestag thanks to the migration votes and its anti-position.” The get together additionally benefited from different – social – points.

Nevertheless, the research exhibits that “the election campaign demonstrably had a particularly mobilizing effect on the left-wing electorate.” “Our thesis is: The emphasis on the migration issue shortly before the federal election increased polarization. The Left benefited from this by taking the opposite position. It was the party that could plausibly claim to be taking an anti-position to the AfD and a restrictive migration policy.”

For the research, with the assistance of the opinion analysis institute Ipsos, a very good 2,500 eligible voters have been surveyed round three months earlier than the federal election and one other 4,000 eligible voters within the weeks after the election. The knowledge was weighted in response to, amongst different issues, social-structural traits and is, in response to the corporate, consultant.

“What’s exciting is that the left’s potential was not yet apparent in November 2024,” says Hirndorf. “Even for Green voters, the Left was not an alternative at that point. In the federal election, many Green voters could suddenly imagine voting for the Left as an alternative. And many Left voters could have imagined voting for the Greens. My thesis is: The latter are probably people who wanted to vote for the Greens in November, but then voted for the Left.”

According to the KAS research, six % of Left voters noticed themselves influenced by migration and refugee coverage, eight % by the migration votes – and 18 % by the affect of the media and public appearances. “This points to Heidi Reichinnek’s speech, which received a lot of attention,” says Hirndorf. The beforehand little-known left-wing politician had accused Merz of tearing down the firewall. Videos of her indignant speech reached a very giant variety of customers on platforms equivalent to Tiktok and Instagram.

According to Hirndorf, info from AfD voters exhibits that the Union didn’t profit from the migration debate. In November 2024, 22 % of them may have imagined voting for the Union. After the election, solely 13 % of AfD voters may think about this. “The election campaign apparently did not contribute to the Union becoming a larger alternative among the AfD electorate,” says the research writer. “On the contrary.”